Football · Spain La Liga · 16/08, 17:00

Prediction: Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao

Team pages: Barcelona · Athletic Bilbao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Barcelona2.28

Athletic Bilbao1.01

1X2

65% 20% 15%

Barcelona Draw Athletic Bilbao

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Athletic Bilbao 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLWWWD

Head-to-head

Barcelona 6–0 Athletic Bilbao (6 last)

Athletic Bilbao0-1Barcelona
Barcelona5-0Athletic Bilbao
Barcelona4-0Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao0-3Barcelona
Athletic Bilbao0-2Barcelona
Barcelona2-1Athletic Bilbao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barcelona 1575 · Athletic Bilbao 1502

	Barcelona	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
Our model	65%	20%	14%
Market	66%	20%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (rating 1575 vs 1502).
H2H favours Barcelona: 6-0-0.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona	Athletic Bilbao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	2.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.5	3.6 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.75

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:31 +18772’	1.42	4.75	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona 6–0–0 Athletic Bilbao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	0-1 HT 0-0	Barcelona
07/01/26 Spain Super Cup	Barcelona	5-0 HT 4-0	Athletic Bilbao
22/11/25 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	4-0 HT 2-0	Athletic Bilbao
25/05/25 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	0-3 HT 0-2	Barcelona
08/01/25 Spain Super Cup	Athletic Bilbao	0-2 HT 0-1	Barcelona
24/08/24 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	2-1 HT 1-1	Athletic Bilbao

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Athletic Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona	Athletic Bilbao
Valencia	1-3 L	0-1 L
CD Alaves	0-1 L	4-2 W
Real Madrid	2-0 W	2-4 L
Celta Vigo	1-0 W	1-1 D
Atletico Madrid	2-1 W	2-3 L
Espanyol	4-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Barcelona

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	1-3	8	4	L
17/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	6	1	W
13/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
10/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
02/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
25/04	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
22/04	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
14/04	Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
11/04	Espanyol Spain La Liga	2-0	4-1	7	9	W
08/04	Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League	0-1	0-2	7	5	L

Athletic Bilbao

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Eibar Europe Friendlies	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
22/07	Sestao River Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	12	0	W
18/07	Leioa Europe Friendlies	7-0	11-0	4	0	W
15/07	CD Derio Europe Friendlies	0-0	3-0	9	0	W
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
17/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
13/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	9	0	L
10/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
02/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	4-2	7	6	W
25/04	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	1-0	2-3	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona win (65%). Probabilities: Barcelona 65%, draw 20%, Athletic Bilbao 15%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Barcelona 2.28 · Athletic Bilbao 1.01), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.