Football · Spain La Liga · 16/08, 17:00

Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Malaga

Team pages: Atletico Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Atletico Madrid2.22

Malaga0.57

1X2

75% 18% 8%

Atletico Madrid Draw Malaga

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Madrid 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLLWWL

Malaga 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atletico Madrid 5–1 Malaga (6 last)

Malaga0-1Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid1-0Malaga
Malaga0-2Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid4-2Malaga
Atletico Madrid1-0Malaga
Malaga1-0Atletico Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Madrid 1499 · Malaga 1578

	Atletico Madrid	Draw	Malaga
Our model	75%	18%	7%
Market	75%	17%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malaga (rating 1499 vs 1578).
H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Madrid	Malaga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.8	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:21 +1’	1.25	5.50	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid 5–0–1 Malaga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/18 Spain La Liga	Malaga	0-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Madrid
16/09/17 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	Malaga
01/04/17 Spain La Liga	Malaga	0-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Madrid
29/10/16 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	4-2 HT 3-1	Malaga
23/04/16 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	Malaga
20/12/15 Spain La Liga	Malaga	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Athletic Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico Madrid

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-4	1-5	9	1	L
17/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
12/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	4	11	W
09/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
05/05	Arsenal UEFA Champions League	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
02/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
29/04	Arsenal UEFA Champions League	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
25/04	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-1	3-2	3	0	W
22/04	Elche Spain La Liga	2-2	2-3	3	5	L
18/04	Real Sociedad Spain Copa del Rey	1-2	2-2	5	5	D

Malaga

WWWDWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Leicester Europe Friendlies	0-1	3-3	4	1	D
20/06	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	2-1	7	6	W
14/06	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
10/06	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
07/06	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
31/05	Real Zaragoza Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
24/05	Racing Santander Spain Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
16/05	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	3-0	4-1	1	6	W
09/05	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	9	8	W
02/05	Eibar Spain Segunda	1-2	4-2	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Madrid win (75%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid 75%, draw 18%, Malaga 8%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Atletico Madrid 2.22 · Malaga 0.57), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Malaga?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.