Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: UD Barbastro vs Arnedo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

UD Barbastro1.96

Arnedo0.96

1X2

60% 23% 17%

UD Barbastro Draw Arnedo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

UD Barbastro 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDDLDDLD

Arnedo 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDDDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD Barbastro 1473 · Arnedo 1436

	UD Barbastro	Draw	Arnedo
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD Barbastro	Arnedo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	0.8 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	6.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.90

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:05 +2’	1.50	3.90	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona B	10	8	1	1	20	5	25
2	Terrassa	10	6	3	1	12	5	21
3	Espanyol B	9	6	2	1	22	8	20
4	Girona B	10	6	1	3	21	12	19
5	UE Olot	10	5	3	2	15	12	18
6	Osasuna B	10	5	2	3	12	7	17
7	CD Ebro	10	5	2	3	18	12	17
8	CE Manresa	10	4	2	4	14	11	14
9	Reus FC Reddis	10	4	2	4	10	12	14
10	Utebo	10	2	6	2	10	9	12
11	Pena Sport	10	3	3	4	13	15	12
12	UD Logrones B	10	2	3	5	9	16	9
13	Tudelano	10	2	3	5	13	19	9
14	UD Barbastro	10	1	6	3	10	12	9
15	SD Logrones	10	1	5	4	8	15	8
16	Arnedo	10	1	3	6	9	22	6
17	Naxara	9	1	3	5	5	15	6
18	CF Calamocha	10	1	2	7	5	19	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD Barbastro	Arnedo
Espanyol B	2-2 D	0-5 L
Tudelano	1-1 D	2-2 D
CE Manresa	0-0 D	1-4 L
Utebo	1-1 D	0-0 D
Naxara	0-0 D	2-1 W
Barcelona B	0-1 L	1-2 L
Terrassa	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 6 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: UD Barbastro (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD Barbastro

WDLDDLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Espanyol B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	2-2	4	8	D
01/11	Pena Sport Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-2	11	7	L
24/10	Tudelano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	CE Manresa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
11/10	UD Logrones B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-2	0	7	L
04/10	Utebo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	15	7	D
27/09	Naxara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
20/09	Barcelona B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
13/09	Terrassa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
06/09	Girona B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	4-3	8	5	W

Arnedo

LLLLLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Naxara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
31/10	Barcelona B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-2	1	8	L
24/10	CF Calamocha Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	Tudelano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	Utebo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
04/10	CD Ebro Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
27/09	Espanyol B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-4	0-5	3	4	L
20/09	Terrassa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Osasuna B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-4	3	7	L
06/09	CE Manresa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-3	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD Barbastro vs Arnedo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UD Barbastro win (60%). Probabilities: UD Barbastro 60%, draw 23%, Arnedo 17%.

How many goals are expected in UD Barbastro vs Arnedo?

The model expects 2.92 goals (UD Barbastro 1.96 · Arnedo 0.96), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UD Barbastro vs Arnedo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.