Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: UD Logrones B vs Pena Sport

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

UD Logrones B1.61

Pena Sport1.3

1X2

43% 27% 30%

UD Logrones B Draw Pena Sport

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UD Logrones B 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWLDLL

Pena Sport 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLDDWL

Head-to-head

UD Logrones B 1–1–0 Pena Sport (2 last)

Pena Sport1-2UD Logrones B
UD Logrones B1-1Pena Sport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD Logrones B 1461 · Pena Sport 1469

	UD Logrones B	Draw	Pena Sport
Our model	44%	27%	30%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD Logrones B	Pena Sport
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	3.8 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.4	7.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:00 +7’	2.05	3.30	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UD Logrones B 1–1–0 Pena Sport

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/22 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	Pena Sport	1-2 HT 1-2	UD Logrones B
13/11/21 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	UD Logrones B	1-1 HT 0-1	Pena Sport

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona B	10	8	1	1	20	5	25
2	Terrassa	10	6	3	1	12	5	21
3	Espanyol B	9	6	2	1	22	8	20
4	Girona B	10	6	1	3	21	12	19
5	UE Olot	10	5	3	2	15	12	18
6	Osasuna B	10	5	2	3	12	7	17
7	CD Ebro	10	5	2	3	18	12	17
8	CE Manresa	10	4	2	4	14	11	14
9	Reus FC Reddis	10	4	2	4	10	12	14
10	Utebo	10	2	6	2	10	9	12
11	Pena Sport	10	3	3	4	13	15	12
12	UD Logrones B	10	2	3	5	9	16	9
13	Tudelano	10	2	3	5	13	19	9
14	UD Barbastro	10	1	6	3	10	12	9
15	SD Logrones	10	1	5	4	8	15	8
16	Arnedo	10	1	3	6	9	22	6
17	Naxara	9	1	3	5	5	15	6
18	CF Calamocha	10	1	2	7	5	19	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD Logrones B	Pena Sport
Reus FC Reddis	0-1 L	1-1 D
Espanyol B	1-3 L	2-1 W
Utebo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Terrassa	0-3 L	2-3 L
UD Barbastro	2-1 W	2-1 W
CE Manresa	1-0 W	0-2 L
CF Calamocha	2-3 L	1-1 D
Barcelona B	0-0 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pena Sport (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD Logrones B

DDLWLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Reus FC Reddis Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
01/11	Espanyol B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-3	6	7	L
24/10	Utebo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
18/10	Terrassa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-3	2	0	L
11/10	UD Barbastro Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
04/10	UE Olot Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-4	4	3	L
26/09	CE Manresa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
20/09	CF Calamocha Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-3	5	8	L
13/09	Barcelona B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
06/09	Tudelano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Pena Sport

DLWLWLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Terrassa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-2	2-3	3	9	L
01/11	UD Barbastro Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
24/10	Reus FC Reddis Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	7	9	D
18/10	CF Calamocha Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	9	10	D
10/10	Naxara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	SD Logrones Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	4-0	12	7	W
26/09	Barcelona B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-4	3	6	L
19/09	Espanyol B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
12/09	CE Manresa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
06/09	Utebo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD Logrones B vs Pena Sport?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UD Logrones B win (43%). Probabilities: UD Logrones B 43%, draw 27%, Pena Sport 30%.

How many goals are expected in UD Logrones B vs Pena Sport?

The model expects 2.9 goals (UD Logrones B 1.61 · Pena Sport 1.3), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UD Logrones B vs Pena Sport?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.