Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · 15/11, 11:30

Prediction: Elche Ilicitano vs Atletico Baleares

Team pages: Atletico Baleares

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Elche Ilicitano1.31

Atletico Baleares1.99

1X2

24% 24% 52%

Elche Ilicitano Draw Atletico Baleares

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Elche Ilicitano 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWLLDW

Atletico Baleares 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDWDDWWL

Head-to-head

Elche Ilicitano 0–2–2 Atletico Baleares (4 last)

Atletico Baleares1-1Elche Ilicitano
Elche Ilicitano2-3Atletico Baleares
Atletico Baleares4-1Elche Ilicitano
Elche Ilicitano2-2Atletico Baleares

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elche Ilicitano 1473 · Atletico Baleares 1484

	Elche Ilicitano	Draw	Atletico Baleares
Our model	24%	24%	52%
Market	24%	24%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Baleares: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elche Ilicitano	Atletico Baleares
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.2	1.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.2	6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.75

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:04 +1’	3.75	3.75	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elche Ilicitano 0–2–2 Atletico Baleares

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	Atletico Baleares	1-1 HT 0-1	Elche Ilicitano
01/12/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	Elche Ilicitano	2-3 HT 2-2	Atletico Baleares
25/01/15 Spain Segunda B Group 3	Atletico Baleares	4-1	Elche Ilicitano
06/09/14 Spain Segunda B Group 3	Elche Ilicitano	2-2	Atletico Baleares

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Castellon B	10	7	0	3	23	10	21
2	Deportiva Minera	10	6	2	2	13	9	20
3	UCAM Murcia CF	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
4	UD Castellonense	10	5	2	3	18	13	17
5	Cieza	10	5	2	3	16	8	17
6	La Nucia	10	5	1	4	16	15	16
7	Alcoyano	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
8	Atletico Baleares	10	3	4	3	16	16	13
9	CF Lorca Deportiva	10	3	4	3	13	11	13
10	Orihuela	10	3	4	3	10	15	13
11	CF Intercity	9	3	4	2	14	13	13
12	Poblense	10	4	1	5	9	12	13
13	Mallorca B	10	3	3	4	11	14	12
14	Yeclano	10	2	5	3	8	10	11
15	Elche Ilicitano	10	3	2	5	12	21	11
16	Real Murcia B	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
17	Valencia B	10	1	4	5	9	16	7
18	SCR Pena Deportiva	10	2	1	7	8	14	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elche Ilicitano	Atletico Baleares
Alcoyano	2-1 W	2-0 W
CF Intercity	2-2 D	2-2 D
Mallorca B	0-4 L	2-2 D
UCAM Murcia CF	1-5 L	1-4 L
Yeclano	0-1 L	0-1 L
SCR Pena Deportiva	1-0 W	3-1 W
Cieza	0-1 L	1-1 D
CF Lorca Deportiva	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Baleares (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elche Ilicitano

DLWLLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	Alcoyano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	2-1	0	8	W
07/11	CF Intercity Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	2-2	1	0	D
31/10	Castellon B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	1-5	5	5	L
25/10	Mallorca B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
10/10	Valencia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	3-0	4-1	4	13	W
03/10	UCAM Murcia CF Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-2	1-5	4	5	L
27/09	Yeclano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
20/09	SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
13/09	Cieza Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
06/09	CF Lorca Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	1-1	1	7	D

Atletico Baleares

LDLDWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	La Nucia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-2	4	8	L
01/11	SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
25/10	Alcoyano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
18/10	CF Lorca Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-2	2-2	9	8	D
11/10	Mallorca B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
04/10	Poblense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	2-1	6	7	W
27/09	Cieza Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	1-1	5	7	D
20/09	UCAM Murcia CF Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-2	1-4	6	6	L
13/09	CF Intercity Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	2-2	2	7	D
06/09	Yeclano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-1	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elche Ilicitano vs Atletico Baleares?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Baleares win (52%). Probabilities: Elche Ilicitano 24%, draw 24%, Atletico Baleares 52%.

How many goals are expected in Elche Ilicitano vs Atletico Baleares?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Elche Ilicitano 1.31 · Atletico Baleares 1.99), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Elche Ilicitano vs Atletico Baleares?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.