Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · 15/11, 17:00

Prediction: La Nucia vs Valencia B

Team pages: Valencia B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

La Nucia1.54

Valencia B1.28

1X2

42% 27% 31%

La Nucia Draw Valencia B

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

La Nucia 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLLLWD

Valencia B 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLDDDL

Head-to-head

La Nucia 0–3–3 Valencia B (6 last)

La Nucia0-6Valencia B
Valencia B3-2La Nucia
Valencia B1-0La Nucia
La Nucia1-1Valencia B
La Nucia0-0Valencia B
Valencia B0-0La Nucia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · La Nucia 1502 · Valencia B 1449

	La Nucia	Draw	Valencia B
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours La Nucia (rating 1502 vs 1449).
H2H favours Valencia B: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	La Nucia	Valencia B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:06 +2’	2.10	3.30	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · La Nucia 0–3–3 Valencia B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/03/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	La Nucia	0-6 HT 0-3	Valencia B
12/11/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	Valencia B	3-2 HT 2-1	La Nucia
13/03/21 Spain Segunda B Group 3	Valencia B	1-0 HT 0-0	La Nucia
12/12/20 Spain Segunda B Group 3	La Nucia	1-1 HT 1-0	Valencia B
02/02/20 Spain Segunda B Group 3	La Nucia	0-0 HT 0-0	Valencia B
14/09/19 Spain Segunda B Group 3	Valencia B	0-0 HT 0-0	La Nucia

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Castellon B	10	7	0	3	23	10	21
2	Deportiva Minera	10	6	2	2	13	9	20
3	UCAM Murcia CF	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
4	UD Castellonense	10	5	2	3	18	13	17
5	Cieza	10	5	2	3	16	8	17
6	La Nucia	10	5	1	4	16	15	16
7	Alcoyano	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
8	Atletico Baleares	10	3	4	3	16	16	13
9	CF Lorca Deportiva	10	3	4	3	13	11	13
10	Orihuela	10	3	4	3	10	15	13
11	CF Intercity	9	3	4	2	14	13	13
12	Poblense	10	4	1	5	9	12	13
13	Mallorca B	10	3	3	4	11	14	12
14	Yeclano	10	2	5	3	8	10	11
15	Elche Ilicitano	10	3	2	5	12	21	11
16	Real Murcia B	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
17	Valencia B	10	1	4	5	9	16	7
18	SCR Pena Deportiva	10	2	1	7	8	14	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	La Nucia	Valencia B
UD Castellonense	2-2 D	1-1 D
Castellon B	1-2 L	1-2 L
CF Lorca Deportiva	1-3 L	1-1 D
Mallorca B	2-0 W	1-1 D
Poblense	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: La Nucia (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

La Nucia

WWWWLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	UD Castellonense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
08/11	Atletico Baleares Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	2-1	3	8	W
01/11	CF Intercity Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	1-4	10	6	L
25/10	Castellon B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	1-2	2	10	L
11/10	CF Lorca Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
04/10	Deportiva Minera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
27/09	Mallorca B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
20/09	Yeclano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/09	Real Murcia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	2-0	5-1	3	6	W
06/09	Poblense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	1-0	6	3	W

Valencia B

DLLLWLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	Cieza Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
08/11	CF Lorca Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
31/10	UD Castellonense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
24/10	Orihuela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
10/10	Elche Ilicitano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-3	1-4	9	13	L
04/10	SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	2-2	3-2	7	4	W
27/09	Poblense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Castellon B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
13/09	UCAM Murcia CF Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-1	7	8	L
06/09	Mallorca B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in La Nucia vs Valencia B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a La Nucia win (42%). Probabilities: La Nucia 42%, draw 27%, Valencia B 31%.

How many goals are expected in La Nucia vs Valencia B?

The model expects 2.82 goals (La Nucia 1.54 · Valencia B 1.28), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in La Nucia vs Valencia B?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.