Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · 15/11, 11:30

Prediction: Deportiva Minera vs Poblense

Team pages: Poblense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Deportiva Minera1.4

Poblense0.9

1X2

48% 28% 24%

Deportiva Minera Draw Poblense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportiva Minera 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWWWWL

Poblense 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWDWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportiva Minera 1551 · Poblense 1472

	Deportiva Minera	Draw	Poblense
Our model	47%	30%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportiva Minera (rating 1551 vs 1472).
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportiva Minera	Poblense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.4	1.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:40 +26’	1.83	3.30	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Castellon B	10	7	0	3	23	10	21
2	Deportiva Minera	10	6	2	2	13	9	20
3	UCAM Murcia CF	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
4	UD Castellonense	10	5	2	3	18	13	17
5	Cieza	10	5	2	3	16	8	17
6	La Nucia	10	5	1	4	16	15	16
7	Alcoyano	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
8	Atletico Baleares	10	3	4	3	16	16	13
9	CF Lorca Deportiva	10	3	4	3	13	11	13
10	Orihuela	10	3	4	3	10	15	13
11	CF Intercity	9	3	4	2	14	13	13
12	Poblense	10	4	1	5	9	12	13
13	Mallorca B	10	3	3	4	11	14	12
14	Yeclano	10	2	5	3	8	10	11
15	Elche Ilicitano	10	3	2	5	12	21	11
16	Real Murcia B	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
17	Valencia B	10	1	4	5	9	16	7
18	SCR Pena Deportiva	10	2	1	7	8	14	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportiva Minera	Poblense
Castellon B	0-3 L	2-1 W
Cieza	1-0 W	1-0 W
Yeclano	2-0 W	2-2 D
UD Castellonense	3-2 W	1-2 L
La Nucia	2-0 W	0-1 L
Alcoyano	0-2 L	0-2 L
SCR Pena Deportiva	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportiva Minera (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportiva Minera

WDDLWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	Castellon B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-3	1	12	L
08/11	Real Murcia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	2-0	2	8	W
01/11	Cieza Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
24/10	Yeclano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
11/10	UD Castellonense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
04/10	La Nucia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
27/09	Alcoyano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
20/09	Orihuela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
13/09	Mallorca B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
06/09	SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-0	11	2	W

Poblense

LLLWLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Cieza Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/11	CF Lorca Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
25/10	SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
18/10	Yeclano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	2-2	3	5	D
11/10	Castellon B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	2-1	6	9	W
04/10	Atletico Baleares Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-2	8	7	L
27/09	Valencia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
20/09	Alcoyano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-2	0-2	2	5	L
13/09	UD Castellonense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
06/09	La Nucia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	0-1	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportiva Minera vs Poblense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportiva Minera win (48%). Probabilities: Deportiva Minera 48%, draw 28%, Poblense 24%.

How many goals are expected in Deportiva Minera vs Poblense?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Deportiva Minera 1.4 · Poblense 0.9), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportiva Minera vs Poblense?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.