Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · 15/11, 16:45

Prediction: UD Castellonense vs Orihuela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

UD Castellonense1.36

Orihuela1.49

1X2

34% 27% 39%

UD Castellonense Draw Orihuela

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

UD Castellonense 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Orihuela 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD Castellonense 1519 · Orihuela 1487

	UD Castellonense	Draw	Orihuela
Our model	34%	27%	39%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD Castellonense	Orihuela
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.3	6.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:55 +13’	2.63	3.40	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Castellon B	10	7	0	3	23	10	21
2	Deportiva Minera	10	6	2	2	13	9	20
3	UCAM Murcia CF	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
4	UD Castellonense	10	5	2	3	18	13	17
5	Cieza	10	5	2	3	16	8	17
6	La Nucia	10	5	1	4	16	15	16
7	Alcoyano	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
8	Atletico Baleares	10	3	4	3	16	16	13
9	CF Lorca Deportiva	10	3	4	3	13	11	13
10	Orihuela	10	3	4	3	10	15	13
11	CF Intercity	9	3	4	2	14	13	13
12	Poblense	10	4	1	5	9	12	13
13	Mallorca B	10	3	3	4	11	14	12
14	Yeclano	10	2	5	3	8	10	11
15	Elche Ilicitano	10	3	2	5	12	21	11
16	Real Murcia B	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
17	Valencia B	10	1	4	5	9	16	7
18	SCR Pena Deportiva	10	2	1	7	8	14	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD Castellonense	Orihuela
Valencia B	1-1 D	1-1 D
Deportiva Minera	2-3 L	2-2 D
Real Murcia B	3-0 W	2-1 W
CF Lorca Deportiva	0-1 L	1-0 W
Cieza	1-0 W	0-4 L
UCAM Murcia CF	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: UD Castellonense (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD Castellonense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/11	La Nucia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
08/11	Alcoyano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-3	3-4	7	7	L
31/10	Valencia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
24/10	CF Intercity Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
11/10	Deportiva Minera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
04/10	Real Murcia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
27/09	CF Lorca Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-1	0	10	L
19/09	Cieza Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
13/09	Poblense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	UCAM Murcia CF Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	2-0	2-1	2	9	W

Orihuela

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	UCAM Murcia CF Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
01/11	Yeclano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
24/10	Valencia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
18/10	Mallorca B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	2-0	2-0	2	10	W
11/10	SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	1-3	4	10	L
04/10	Cieza Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-4	2	5	L
26/09	Castellon B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-1	1-4	13	10	L
20/09	Deportiva Minera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
13/09	CF Lorca Deportiva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/09	Real Murcia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	2-1	2-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD Castellonense vs Orihuela?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Orihuela win (39%). Probabilities: UD Castellonense 34%, draw 27%, Orihuela 39%.

How many goals are expected in UD Castellonense vs Orihuela?

The model expects 2.85 goals (UD Castellonense 1.36 · Orihuela 1.49), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UD Castellonense vs Orihuela?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.