Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · 15/11, 11:30
Prediction: Cieza vs SCR Pena Deportiva
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Cieza1.7
SCR Pena Deportiva0.89
1X2
Cieza
Draw
SCR Pena Deportiva
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Cieza
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
SCR Pena Deportiva
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cieza 1512 · SCR Pena Deportiva 1444
| Cieza | Draw | SCR Pena Deportiva | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 26% | 18% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cieza (rating 1512 vs 1444).
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cieza | SCR Pena Deportiva | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 0/80/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 1.8 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0 | 5 / 0.6 |
Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellon B | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Deportiva Minera | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | UCAM Murcia CF | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | UD Castellonense | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 17 |
| 5 | Cieza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 17 |
| 6 | La Nucia | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 7 | Alcoyano | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| 8 | Atletico Baleares | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
| 9 | CF Lorca Deportiva | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 10 | Orihuela | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 13 |
| 11 | CF Intercity | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| 12 | Poblense | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 13 |
| 13 | Mallorca B | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 12 |
| 14 | Yeclano | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| 15 | Elche Ilicitano | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 11 |
| 16 | Real Murcia B | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 8 |
| 17 | Valencia B | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 7 |
| 18 | SCR Pena Deportiva | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cieza | SCR Pena Deportiva |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia B | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Poblense | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportiva Minera | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| UCAM Murcia CF | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Orihuela | 4-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Atletico Baleares | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Elche Ilicitano | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Cieza (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cieza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Valencia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/11 | Poblense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 01/11 | Deportiva Minera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 25/10 | UCAM Murcia CF Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
3-2 | 4-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | CF Intercity Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 04/10 | Orihuela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 27/09 | Atletico Baleares Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/09 | UD Castellonense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Elche Ilicitano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Alcoyano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
SCR Pena Deportiva
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Castellon B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/11 | Atletico Baleares Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/10 | Poblense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/10 | UCAM Murcia CF Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/10 | Orihuela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 04/10 | Valencia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | Real Murcia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | Elche Ilicitano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 13/09 | Yeclano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 12 | D |
| 06/09 | Deportiva Minera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cieza vs SCR Pena Deportiva?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cieza win (56%). Probabilities: Cieza 56%, draw 25%, SCR Pena Deportiva 19%.
How many goals are expected in Cieza vs SCR Pena Deportiva?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Cieza 1.7 · SCR Pena Deportiva 0.89), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cieza vs SCR Pena Deportiva?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.