Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · 15/11, 12:00
Prediction: Valladolid Promesas vs Numancia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Valladolid Promesas1.22
Numancia1.59
1X2
Valladolid Promesas
Draw
Numancia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Valladolid Promesas
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Numancia
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Valladolid Promesas
0–3–3
Numancia
(6 last)
- Valladolid Promesas1-1Numancia
- Numancia3-1Valladolid Promesas
- Valladolid Promesas1-3Numancia
- Numancia3-1Valladolid Promesas
- Valladolid Promesas1-1Numancia
- Numancia2-2Valladolid Promesas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valladolid Promesas 1517 · Numancia 1549
| Valladolid Promesas | Draw | Numancia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Market | 28% | 27% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Numancia: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Valladolid Promesas | Numancia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 2.5 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.4 | 4.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valladolid Promesas 0–3–3 Numancia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 | Valladolid Promesas | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Numancia |
| 02/11/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 | Numancia | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Valladolid Promesas |
| 27/04/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 | Valladolid Promesas | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Numancia |
| 15/12/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 | Numancia | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Valladolid Promesas |
| 21/02/21 Spain Segunda B Group 1 | Valladolid Promesas | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Numancia |
| 28/11/20 Spain Segunda B Group 1 | Numancia | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Valladolid Promesas |
Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 5
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Numancia | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Salamanca CF UDS | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | UD San Sebastian Reyes | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Conquense | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid C | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Valladolid Promesas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 16 | 17 |
| 7 | Navalcarnero | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 16 |
| 8 | CF Talavera | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 15 |
| 9 | CD Guadalajara | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 20 | 13 |
| 10 | Albacete B | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 24 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Madrid C | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| 12 | Atletico Tordesillas | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Gimnastica Segoviana | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| 13 | RSD Alcala | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| 15 | CD Atletico Paso | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 10 |
| 16 | Getafe B | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 8 |
| 17 | Real Avila | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 7 |
| 18 | Calvo Sotelo | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Valladolid Promesas | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe B | 4-3 W | 0-0 D |
| CD Guadalajara | 4-4 D | 1-0 W |
| Real Avila | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Calvo Sotelo | 3-0 W | 6-0 W |
| CF Talavera | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| UD San Sebastian Reyes | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Navalcarnero | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Numancia (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valladolid Promesas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 01/11 | Getafe B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/10 | CD Guadalajara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
2-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 18/10 | Real Avila Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 04/10 | Calvo Sotelo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 27/09 | CF Talavera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Albacete B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
3-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | UD San Sebastian Reyes Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Numancia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Calvo Sotelo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/11 | Atletico Tordesillas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/10 | Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
2-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/10 | CF Talavera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | Real Avila Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/10 | Getafe B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 27/09 | CD Guadalajara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/09 | UD San Sebastian Reyes Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | Atletico Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/09 | CD Atletico Paso Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valladolid Promesas vs Numancia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Numancia win (45%). Probabilities: Valladolid Promesas 28%, draw 27%, Numancia 45%.
How many goals are expected in Valladolid Promesas vs Numancia?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Valladolid Promesas 1.22 · Numancia 1.59), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Valladolid Promesas vs Numancia?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.