Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · 15/11, 17:00

Prediction: Conquense vs CD Guadalajara

Team pages: Conquense · CD Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

Conquense2.26

CD Guadalajara1.55

1X2

52% 23% 24%

Conquense Draw CD Guadalajara

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Conquense 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWDWD

CD Guadalajara 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWLDWD

Head-to-head

Conquense 1–2–3 CD Guadalajara (6 last)

Conquense4-1CD Guadalajara
CD Guadalajara2-0Conquense
Conquense0-2CD Guadalajara
Conquense2-2CD Guadalajara
CD Guadalajara1-1Conquense
CD Guadalajara1-0Conquense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Conquense 1553 · CD Guadalajara 1491

	Conquense	Draw	CD Guadalajara
Our model	53%	22%	25%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Conquense (rating 1553 vs 1491).
H2H favours CD Guadalajara: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Conquense	CD Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.1	2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +4’	1.75	3.60	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Conquense 1–2–3 CD Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Europe Friendlies	Conquense	4-1 HT 2-1	CD Guadalajara
22/03/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	CD Guadalajara	2-0 HT 0-0	Conquense
10/11/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	Conquense	0-2 HT 0-1	CD Guadalajara
06/02/22 Spain Tercera Group 18	Conquense	2-2 HT 1-1	CD Guadalajara
09/10/21 Spain Tercera Group 18	CD Guadalajara	1-1	Conquense
28/02/21 Spain Tercera Group 18	CD Guadalajara	1-0	Conquense

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Numancia	10	5	4	1	16	5	19
2	Salamanca CF UDS	10	6	1	3	16	11	19
3	UD San Sebastian Reyes	10	6	1	3	15	11	19
4	Conquense	9	5	3	1	20	11	18
5	Atletico Madrid C	10	5	3	2	15	12	18
6	Valladolid Promesas	10	5	2	3	22	16	17
7	Navalcarnero	10	4	4	2	18	15	16
8	CF Talavera	9	4	3	2	11	8	15
9	CD Guadalajara	10	3	4	3	20	20	13
10	Albacete B	10	3	3	4	13	24	12
11	Real Madrid C	10	2	5	3	5	6	11
12	Atletico Tordesillas	10	2	4	4	16	16	10
13	Gimnastica Segoviana	10	2	4	4	14	15	10
13	RSD Alcala	10	2	4	4	14	15	10
15	CD Atletico Paso	10	2	4	4	11	13	10
16	Getafe B	10	1	5	4	13	17	8
17	Real Avila	10	2	1	7	8	18	7
18	Calvo Sotelo	10	1	3	6	6	20	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Conquense	CD Guadalajara
RSD Alcala	2-2 D	2-1 W
Real Madrid C	2-0 W	1-1 D
Navalcarnero	3-1 W	2-2 D
Salamanca CF UDS	1-0 W	2-3 L
Gimnastica Segoviana	2-1 W	3-3 D
Getafe B	2-2 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Conquense (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Conquense

WDWWWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	RSD Alcala Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	2-2	8	4	D
25/10	Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
18/10	CD Atletico Paso Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
11/10	Albacete B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
04/10	Atletico Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	2-3	4	7	L
27/09	Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	3-1	4	4	W
20/09	Salamanca CF UDS Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
13/09	Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
06/09	Getafe B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	2-2	9	5	D
03/05	Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	1-0	1	6	W

CD Guadalajara

LWLDDWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
01/11	Calvo Sotelo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	2-1	6	10	W
25/10	Valladolid Promesas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	2-2	4-4	4	6	D
18/10	Atletico Tordesillas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-3	0-3	5	5	L
11/10	Getafe B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	4-1	5	5	W
07/10	Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-2	3-3	5	7	D
27/09	Numancia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	RSD Alcala Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
06/09	Salamanca CF UDS Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-3	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Conquense vs CD Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Conquense win (52%). Probabilities: Conquense 52%, draw 23%, CD Guadalajara 24%.

How many goals are expected in Conquense vs CD Guadalajara?

The model expects 3.81 goals (Conquense 2.26 · CD Guadalajara 1.55), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Conquense vs CD Guadalajara?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.