Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: CF Lorca Deportiva vs Mallorca B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

CF Lorca Deportiva1.55

Mallorca B1.05

1X2

48% 27% 25%

CF Lorca Deportiva Draw Mallorca B

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CF Lorca Deportiva 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Mallorca B 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Lorca Deportiva 1507 · Mallorca B 1484

	CF Lorca Deportiva	Draw	Mallorca B
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Lorca Deportiva	Mallorca B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.7	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:57 +9’	1.83	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Castellon B	10	7	0	3	23	10	21
2	Deportiva Minera	10	6	2	2	13	9	20
3	UCAM Murcia CF	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
4	UD Castellonense	10	5	2	3	18	13	17
5	Cieza	10	5	2	3	16	8	17
6	La Nucia	10	5	1	4	16	15	16
7	Alcoyano	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
8	Atletico Baleares	10	3	4	3	16	16	13
9	CF Lorca Deportiva	10	3	4	3	13	11	13
10	Orihuela	10	3	4	3	10	15	13
11	CF Intercity	9	3	4	2	14	13	13
12	Poblense	10	4	1	5	9	12	13
13	Mallorca B	10	3	3	4	11	14	12
14	Yeclano	10	2	5	3	8	10	11
15	Elche Ilicitano	10	3	2	5	12	21	11
16	Real Murcia B	9	2	2	5	9	17	8
17	Valencia B	10	1	4	5	9	16	7
18	SCR Pena Deportiva	10	2	1	7	8	14	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Lorca Deportiva	Mallorca B
Valencia B	1-1 D	1-1 D
Real Murcia B	2-3 L	1-0 W
Atletico Baleares	2-2 D	2-2 D
La Nucia	3-1 W	0-2 L
Orihuela	0-1 L	0-2 L
Elche Ilicitano	1-1 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CF Lorca Deportiva

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Valencia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
01/11	Poblense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
25/10	Real Murcia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	2-3	4	5	L
18/10	Atletico Baleares Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	2-0	2-2	6	8	D
11/10	La Nucia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
03/10	Castellon B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	1-2	3	9	L
27/09	UD Castellonense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-0	3	10	W
20/09	CF Intercity Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
13/09	Orihuela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Elche Ilicitano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	1-1	15	7	D

Mallorca B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Yeclano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	2-0	2-1	1	5	W
01/11	UCAM Murcia CF Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-4	1-5	2	6	L
25/10	Elche Ilicitano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
18/10	Orihuela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-2	0-2	5	10	L
11/10	Atletico Baleares Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
04/10	Alcoyano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
27/09	La Nucia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
20/09	Real Murcia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	1-0	1	9	W
13/09	Deportiva Minera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
06/09	Valencia B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 3	0-1	1-1	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Lorca Deportiva vs Mallorca B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CF Lorca Deportiva win (48%). Probabilities: CF Lorca Deportiva 48%, draw 27%, Mallorca B 25%.

How many goals are expected in CF Lorca Deportiva vs Mallorca B?

The model expects 2.6 goals (CF Lorca Deportiva 1.55 · Mallorca B 1.05), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Lorca Deportiva vs Mallorca B?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.