Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: RSD Alcala vs Atletico Madrid C

Team pages: RSD Alcala

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

RSD Alcala1.74

Atletico Madrid C1.17

1X2

50% 25% 25%

RSD Alcala Draw Atletico Madrid C

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

RSD Alcala 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Madrid C 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RSD Alcala 1473 · Atletico Madrid C 1531

	RSD Alcala	Draw	Atletico Madrid C
Our model	50%	26%	25%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Madrid C (rating 1473 vs 1531).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RSD Alcala	Atletico Madrid C
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.3	0.9 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +2’	1.80	3.60	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Numancia	10	5	4	1	16	5	19
2	Salamanca CF UDS	10	6	1	3	16	11	19
3	UD San Sebastian Reyes	10	6	1	3	15	11	19
4	Conquense	9	5	3	1	20	11	18
5	Atletico Madrid C	10	5	3	2	15	12	18
6	Valladolid Promesas	10	5	2	3	22	16	17
7	Navalcarnero	10	4	4	2	18	15	16
8	CF Talavera	9	4	3	2	11	8	15
9	CD Guadalajara	10	3	4	3	20	20	13
10	Albacete B	10	3	3	4	13	24	12
11	Real Madrid C	10	2	5	3	5	6	11
12	Atletico Tordesillas	10	2	4	4	16	16	10
13	Gimnastica Segoviana	10	2	4	4	14	15	10
13	RSD Alcala	10	2	4	4	14	15	10
15	CD Atletico Paso	10	2	4	4	11	13	10
16	Getafe B	10	1	5	4	13	17	8
17	Real Avila	10	2	1	7	8	18	7
18	Calvo Sotelo	10	1	3	6	6	20	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RSD Alcala	Atletico Madrid C
CD Atletico Paso	1-1 D	1-0 W
Conquense	2-2 D	3-2 W
Real Madrid C	0-0 D	2-0 W
Navalcarnero	1-3 L	1-1 D
Gimnastica Segoviana	5-2 W	1-1 D
CF Talavera	3-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid C (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RSD Alcala

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Atletico Paso Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/11	Conquense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
24/10	UD San Sebastian Reyes Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	1-2	10	3	L
18/10	Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
11/10	Calvo Sotelo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
04/10	Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
27/09	Salamanca CF UDS Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-2	0-3	3	9	L
20/09	Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	2-2	5-2	3	8	W
13/09	CD Guadalajara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
06/09	CF Talavera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	3-0	3	5	W

Atletico Madrid C

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Atletico Tordesillas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	2-1	3-3	1	5	D
31/10	CF Talavera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
25/10	Albacete B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
17/10	Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
11/10	Navalcarnero Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
04/10	Conquense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	3-2	2	7	W
27/09	Real Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
19/09	CD Atletico Paso Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	Numancia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
05/09	Real Avila Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RSD Alcala vs Atletico Madrid C?

According to our model, the most likely result is a RSD Alcala win (50%). Probabilities: RSD Alcala 50%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid C 25%.

How many goals are expected in RSD Alcala vs Atletico Madrid C?

The model expects 2.92 goals (RSD Alcala 1.74 · Atletico Madrid C 1.17), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in RSD Alcala vs Atletico Madrid C?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.