Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · 15/11, 16:30

Prediction: Navalcarnero vs Getafe B

Team pages: Navalcarnero · Getafe B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Navalcarnero1.65

Getafe B1.29

1X2

45% 26% 29%

Navalcarnero Draw Getafe B

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Navalcarnero 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDDWWD

Getafe B 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLDLDDLW

Head-to-head

Navalcarnero 2–2–2 Getafe B (6 last)

Navalcarnero0-0Getafe B
Getafe B3-2Navalcarnero
Getafe B0-1Navalcarnero
Navalcarnero3-2Getafe B
Navalcarnero0-0Getafe B
Getafe B2-1Navalcarnero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Navalcarnero 1562 · Getafe B 1472

	Navalcarnero	Draw	Getafe B
Our model	45%	26%	29%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Navalcarnero (rating 1562 vs 1472).
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Navalcarnero	Getafe B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	5.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +17’	2.00	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Navalcarnero 2–2–2 Getafe B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	Navalcarnero	0-0 HT 0-0	Getafe B
07/09/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	Getafe B	3-2 HT 1-0	Navalcarnero
09/03/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	Getafe B	0-1 HT 0-1	Navalcarnero
27/10/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	Navalcarnero	3-2 HT 0-2	Getafe B
17/03/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	Navalcarnero	0-0 HT 0-0	Getafe B
05/11/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	Getafe B	2-1 HT 1-0	Navalcarnero

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Numancia	10	5	4	1	16	5	19
2	Salamanca CF UDS	10	6	1	3	16	11	19
3	UD San Sebastian Reyes	10	6	1	3	15	11	19
4	Conquense	9	5	3	1	20	11	18
5	Atletico Madrid C	10	5	3	2	15	12	18
6	Valladolid Promesas	10	5	2	3	22	16	17
7	Navalcarnero	10	4	4	2	18	15	16
8	CF Talavera	9	4	3	2	11	8	15
9	CD Guadalajara	10	3	4	3	20	20	13
10	Albacete B	10	3	3	4	13	24	12
11	Real Madrid C	10	2	5	3	5	6	11
12	Atletico Tordesillas	10	2	4	4	16	16	10
13	Gimnastica Segoviana	10	2	4	4	14	15	10
13	RSD Alcala	10	2	4	4	14	15	10
15	CD Atletico Paso	10	2	4	4	11	13	10
16	Getafe B	10	1	5	4	13	17	8
17	Real Avila	10	2	1	7	8	18	7
18	Calvo Sotelo	10	1	3	6	6	20	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Navalcarnero	Getafe B
CD Guadalajara	2-2 D	1-4 L
Numancia	3-2 W	0-0 D
Salamanca CF UDS	1-1 D	0-1 L
Conquense	1-3 L	2-2 D
Real Avila	2-1 W	0-1 L
Valladolid Promesas	0-1 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Navalcarnero (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Navalcarnero

LWDLWDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Guadalajara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
01/11	CD Atletico Paso Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	2-0	3-1	2	6	W
24/10	Numancia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
18/10	Salamanca CF UDS Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
11/10	Atletico Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	1-1	11	3	D
04/10	RSD Alcala Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
27/09	Conquense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	1-3	6	4	L
20/09	Atletico Tordesillas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
13/09	Real Avila Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
06/09	Valladolid Promesas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	0-1	3	5	L

Getafe B

DLDLDLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	UD San Sebastian Reyes Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
01/11	Valladolid Promesas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	2-1	3-4	3	4	L
25/10	Calvo Sotelo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	2-2	3	7	D
18/10	Albacete B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-2	2-2	3	4	D
11/10	CD Guadalajara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-4	6	5	L
04/10	Numancia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
27/09	Real Avila Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	CF Talavera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Salamanca CF UDS Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
06/09	Conquense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-2	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Navalcarnero vs Getafe B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Navalcarnero win (45%). Probabilities: Navalcarnero 45%, draw 26%, Getafe B 29%.

How many goals are expected in Navalcarnero vs Getafe B?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Navalcarnero 1.65 · Getafe B 1.29), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Navalcarnero vs Getafe B?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.