Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 · 15/11, 17:00

Prediction: Compostela vs Ourense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Compostela1.36

Ourense1.16

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Compostela Draw Ourense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Compostela 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWWWDW

Ourense 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLLWDL

Head-to-head

Compostela 3–1–2 Ourense (6 last)

Compostela4-2Ourense
Ourense2-0Compostela
Compostela0-1Ourense
Compostela2-1Ourense
Ourense1-1Compostela
Ourense1-2Compostela

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Compostela 1538 · Ourense 1474

	Compostela	Draw	Ourense
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Compostela (rating 1538 vs 1474).
H2H favours Compostela: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Compostela	Ourense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
12:01 +7’	2.15	3.25	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Compostela 3–1–2 Ourense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Europe Friendlies	Compostela	4-2 HT 3-1	Ourense
10/02/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Ourense	2-0 HT 1-0	Compostela
01/10/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Compostela	0-1 HT 0-1	Ourense
05/02/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Compostela	2-1 HT 1-0	Ourense
18/09/22 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	Ourense	1-1 HT 1-0	Compostela
24/08/22 Europe Friendlies	Ourense	1-2 HT 0-1	Compostela

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sestao River	10	8	1	1	13	3	25
2	Eibar B	10	6	2	2	19	9	20
3	Alaves B	10	6	2	2	23	14	20
4	Bergantinos	10	5	3	2	23	15	18
5	Compostela	10	5	2	3	13	9	17
6	Portugalete	10	4	4	2	15	12	16
7	Amorebieta	10	5	1	4	12	10	16
8	Real Oviedo B	10	4	3	3	13	16	15
9	Basconia	10	3	5	2	15	15	14
10	Ourense	10	4	2	4	9	12	14
11	Gernika	10	2	6	2	15	9	12
12	Rayo Cantabria	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
13	UD Llanera	10	3	1	6	16	24	10
14	Coruxo	10	2	3	5	9	13	9
15	Arosa	10	1	5	4	16	22	8
16	Marino de Luanco	10	2	2	6	8	14	8
17	Atletico Astorga	10	2	1	7	12	18	7
18	Gimnastica de Torrelavega	10	1	3	6	7	19	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Compostela	Ourense
Arosa	2-1 W	0-0 D
Basconia	0-0 D	2-1 W
Atletico Astorga	4-1 W	0-4 L
Coruxo	1-0 W	0-1 L
Eibar B	0-1 L	0-2 L
Portugalete	0-0 D	0-3 L
Marino de Luanco	0-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Compostela (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Compostela

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Arosa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
01/11	Basconia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
24/10	UD Llanera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	3-1	2	5	W
17/10	Atletico Astorga Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	3-0	4-1	5	2	W
11/10	Coruxo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
04/10	Real Oviedo B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
27/09	Eibar B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
20/09	Sestao River Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
13/09	Portugalete Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
06/09	Marino de Luanco Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	0-3	7	7	L

Ourense

WWLWDLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Portugalete Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-3	1	4	L
01/11	Bergantinos Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
25/10	Gimnastica de Torrelavega Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
17/10	Coruxo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
10/10	Atletico Astorga Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	0-4	5	8	L
04/10	Arosa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
26/09	Amorebieta Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
19/09	Eibar B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	3	8	L
13/09	Marino de Luanco Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/09	Basconia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Compostela vs Ourense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Compostela win (41%). Probabilities: Compostela 41%, draw 28%, Ourense 31%.

How many goals are expected in Compostela vs Ourense?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Compostela 1.36 · Ourense 1.16), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Compostela vs Ourense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.