Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 · 14/11, 18:00

Prediction: Portugalete vs Marino de Luanco

Team pages: Marino de Luanco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Portugalete1.57

Marino de Luanco0.87

1X2

53% 27% 20%

Portugalete Draw Marino de Luanco

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Portugalete 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWDDDW

Marino de Luanco 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLDDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portugalete 1531 · Marino de Luanco 1447

	Portugalete	Draw	Marino de Luanco
Our model	53%	28%	20%
Market	54%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portugalete (rating 1531 vs 1447).
Cards-heavy: 12.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portugalete	Marino de Luanco
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.3	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.2	5.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:01 +4’	1.67	3.50	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sestao River	10	8	1	1	13	3	25
2	Eibar B	10	6	2	2	19	9	20
3	Alaves B	10	6	2	2	23	14	20
4	Bergantinos	10	5	3	2	23	15	18
5	Compostela	10	5	2	3	13	9	17
6	Portugalete	10	4	4	2	15	12	16
7	Amorebieta	10	5	1	4	12	10	16
8	Real Oviedo B	10	4	3	3	13	16	15
9	Basconia	10	3	5	2	15	15	14
10	Ourense	10	4	2	4	9	12	14
11	Gernika	10	2	6	2	15	9	12
12	Rayo Cantabria	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
13	UD Llanera	10	3	1	6	16	24	10
14	Coruxo	10	2	3	5	9	13	9
15	Arosa	10	1	5	4	16	22	8
16	Marino de Luanco	10	2	2	6	8	14	8
17	Atletico Astorga	10	2	1	7	12	18	7
18	Gimnastica de Torrelavega	10	1	3	6	7	19	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portugalete	Marino de Luanco
Ourense	3-0 W	0-2 L
Basconia	2-2 D	1-2 L
Compostela	0-0 D	3-0 W
Atletico Astorga	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Portugalete (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portugalete

WDWLLWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Ourense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	3-0	7	4	W
01/11	Arosa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-3	7	5	D
25/10	Basconia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	2-2	2-2	2	13	D
17/10	Eibar B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
10/10	Amorebieta Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/10	Alaves B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-2	8	6	L
27/09	Bergantinos Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-3	1	9	L
19/09	Coruxo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	9	8	W
13/09	Compostela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	10	8	D
05/09	Atletico Astorga Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	5	W

Marino de Luanco

WLLLWLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Rayo Cantabria Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
31/10	Gernika Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
25/10	Real Oviedo B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
18/10	Sestao River Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
10/10	UD Llanera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	2-4	1	7	L
03/10	Gimnastica de Torrelavega Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-1	4	9	W
27/09	Basconia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
19/09	Atletico Astorga Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
13/09	Ourense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
06/09	Compostela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	3-0	0	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portugalete vs Marino de Luanco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portugalete win (53%). Probabilities: Portugalete 53%, draw 27%, Marino de Luanco 20%.

How many goals are expected in Portugalete vs Marino de Luanco?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Portugalete 1.57 · Marino de Luanco 0.87), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Portugalete vs Marino de Luanco?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.