Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 · 15/11, 17:00

Prediction: Gernika vs Real Oviedo B

Team pages: Real Oviedo B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Gernika1.45

Real Oviedo B1.07

1X2

45% 28% 27%

Gernika Draw Real Oviedo B

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Gernika 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDLDDD

Real Oviedo B 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWLDWD

Head-to-head

Gernika 0–2–0 Real Oviedo B (2 last)

Real Oviedo B0-0Gernika
Gernika1-1Real Oviedo B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gernika 1500 · Real Oviedo B 1504

	Gernika	Draw	Real Oviedo B
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gernika	Real Oviedo B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	2.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	5.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.20

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:06 +2’	2.00	3.20	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gernika 0–2–0 Real Oviedo B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/03/19 Spain Segunda B Group 2	Real Oviedo B	0-0 HT 0-0	Gernika
04/11/18 Spain Segunda B Group 2	Gernika	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Oviedo B

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sestao River	10	8	1	1	13	3	25
2	Eibar B	10	6	2	2	19	9	20
3	Alaves B	10	6	2	2	23	14	20
4	Bergantinos	10	5	3	2	23	15	18
5	Compostela	10	5	2	3	13	9	17
6	Portugalete	10	4	4	2	15	12	16
7	Amorebieta	10	5	1	4	12	10	16
8	Real Oviedo B	10	4	3	3	13	16	15
9	Basconia	10	3	5	2	15	15	14
10	Ourense	10	4	2	4	9	12	14
11	Gernika	10	2	6	2	15	9	12
12	Rayo Cantabria	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
13	UD Llanera	10	3	1	6	16	24	10
14	Coruxo	10	2	3	5	9	13	9
15	Arosa	10	1	5	4	16	22	8
16	Marino de Luanco	10	2	2	6	8	14	8
17	Atletico Astorga	10	2	1	7	12	18	7
18	Gimnastica de Torrelavega	10	1	3	6	7	19	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gernika	Real Oviedo B
Gimnastica de Torrelavega	0-0 D	3-3 D
Marino de Luanco	0-0 D	0-0 D
Alaves B	1-1 D	1-3 L
Sestao River	1-2 L	0-2 L
Coruxo	1-1 D	1-1 D
UD Llanera	4-0 W	2-1 W
Bergantinos	2-2 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gernika (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gernika

DWWDLDLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Gimnastica de Torrelavega Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
31/10	Marino de Luanco Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
24/10	Atletico Astorga Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Amorebieta Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	6	11	L
11/10	Alaves B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
04/10	Sestao River Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
27/09	Coruxo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
20/09	UD Llanera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	4-0	4	6	W
13/09	Arosa Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
06/09	Bergantinos Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	2-2	3	4	D

Real Oviedo B

WLLDWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Coruxo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
31/10	UD Llanera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
25/10	Marino de Luanco Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
18/10	Bergantinos Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
11/10	Rayo Cantabria Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
04/10	Compostela Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
27/09	Gimnastica de Torrelavega Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	3-3	8	7	D
20/09	Alaves B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-3	4	5	L
13/09	Sestao River Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
05/09	Eibar B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-1	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gernika vs Real Oviedo B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gernika win (45%). Probabilities: Gernika 45%, draw 28%, Real Oviedo B 27%.

How many goals are expected in Gernika vs Real Oviedo B?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Gernika 1.45 · Real Oviedo B 1.07), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gernika vs Real Oviedo B?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.