Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 · 04/10, 17:00
Prediction: Bergantinos vs Coruxo
Team pages: Bergantinos · Coruxo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Bergantinos1.54
Coruxo1.3
1X2
Bergantinos
Draw
Coruxo
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Bergantinos
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Coruxo
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bergantinos
1–1–4
Coruxo
(6 last)
- Bergantinos0-1Coruxo
- Coruxo0-1Bergantinos
- Bergantinos0-1Coruxo
- Coruxo2-1Bergantinos
- Bergantinos1-1Coruxo
- Coruxo3-0Bergantinos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bergantinos 1553 · Coruxo 1493
| Bergantinos | Draw | Coruxo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bergantinos (rating 1553 vs 1493).
- H2H favours Coruxo: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bergantinos | Coruxo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.7 | 1.9 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bergantinos 1–1–4 Coruxo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 | Bergantinos | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Coruxo |
| 12/10/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 | Coruxo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bergantinos |
| 25/01/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 | Bergantinos | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Coruxo |
| 15/09/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 | Coruxo | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Bergantinos |
| 07/05/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 | Bergantinos | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Coruxo |
| 08/01/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 | Coruxo | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Bergantinos |
Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bergantinos | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Alaves B | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Eibar B | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Sestao River | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Ourense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Gernika | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Basconia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Portugalete | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Coruxo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Compostela | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Real Oviedo B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| 13 | Gimnastica de Torrelavega | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 4 |
| 14 | Atletico Astorga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Marino de Luanco | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | UD Llanera | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 3 |
| 17 | Arosa | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 2 |
| 18 | Rayo Cantabria | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bergantinos | Coruxo |
|---|---|---|
| Portugalete | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Gernika | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Bergantinos (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bergantinos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Portugalete Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 20/09 | Gimnastica de Torrelavega Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Amorebieta Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Gernika Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | UD Samano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | UD Ourense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Real Oviedo B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | SD Sarriana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 05/04 | Valladolid Promesas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-2 | 4-3 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 29/03 | Coruxo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 8 | L |
Coruxo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Gernika Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 19/09 | Portugalete Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Rayo Cantabria Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 05/09 | Alaves B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Lealtad Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | Rayo Cantabria Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Burgos Promesas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | Marino de Luanco Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 29/03 | Bergantinos Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bergantinos vs Coruxo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bergantinos win (41%). Probabilities: Bergantinos 41%, draw 28%, Coruxo 30%.
How many goals are expected in Bergantinos vs Coruxo?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Bergantinos 1.54 · Coruxo 1.3), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Bergantinos vs Coruxo?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.