Football · Malta Premier League · 19/09, 20:30

Prediction: Gzira United vs Mosta FC

Team pages: Gzira United · Mosta FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Gzira United1.18

Mosta FC1.23

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Gzira United Draw Mosta FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Gzira United 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLLLD

Mosta FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWWWDL

Head-to-head

Gzira United 4–1–1 Mosta FC (6 last)

Mosta FC1-1Gzira United
Gzira United2-1Mosta FC
Gzira United1-0Mosta FC
Gzira United1-0Mosta FC
Mosta FC3-4Gzira United
Mosta FC1-0Gzira United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gzira United 1452 · Mosta FC 1470

	Gzira United	Draw	Mosta FC
Our model	34%	30%	36%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gzira United: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gzira United	Mosta FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.8	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.4	1.4 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.30

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.55▲	Bet365 2.55
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.63 → 2.38▼	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:53 +7’	2.30	3.30	2.63
11:21 +2’	2.55▲	3.30	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gzira United 4–1–1 Mosta FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Mosta FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Gzira United
03/03/26 Malta FA Trophy	Gzira United	2-1 HT 1-0	Mosta FC
22/02/26 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	1-0 HT 0-0	Mosta FC
24/11/25 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	1-0 HT 0-0	Mosta FC
02/10/25 Malta Premier League	Mosta FC	3-4 HT 1-2	Gzira United
09/08/25 Europe Friendlies	Mosta FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Gzira United

Standings · Malta Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Marsaxlokk FC	5	3	2	0	10	5	11
2	Valletta	5	3	1	1	12	6	10
3	Floriana	5	3	1	1	12	7	10
4	Mosta FC	5	3	1	1	7	5	10
5	Sliema Wanderers	5	3	0	2	7	7	9
6	Balzan FC	5	2	2	1	9	6	8
7	Birkirkara	5	2	1	2	7	4	7
8	Hamrun Spartans	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
9	Hibernians	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
10	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	5	1	2	2	5	7	5
11	Gzira United	5	0	1	4	2	13	1
12	Birzebbuga	5	0	0	5	1	11	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gzira United	Mosta FC
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	0-0 D	2-1 W
Balzan FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Birkirkara	0-4 L	1-0 W
Naxxar Lions	0-0 D	1-0 W
Marsaxlokk FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Hamrun Spartans	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mosta FC (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gzira United

LWLDLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
02/09	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-0	1-4	0	4	L
29/08	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
23/08	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
17/08	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
30/04	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
26/04	Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
19/04	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	0	5	L
15/04	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/04	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	5	L

Mosta FC

WDLDWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	1	L
05/09	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
30/08	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
23/08	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
17/08	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
10/05	Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
30/04	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	0-1	1-1	0	0	D
24/04	Hibernians Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
19/04	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
15/04	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gzira United vs Mosta FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mosta FC win (37%). Probabilities: Gzira United 34%, draw 29%, Mosta FC 37%.

How many goals are expected in Gzira United vs Mosta FC?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Gzira United 1.18 · Mosta FC 1.23), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gzira United vs Mosta FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.