Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 08/11, 00:00

Prediction: CSD Municipal vs Aurora

Team pages: CSD Municipal · Aurora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

CSD Municipal2.33

Aurora0.82

1X2

71% 18% 11%

CSD Municipal Draw Aurora

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CSD Municipal 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWDDLDDLWL

Aurora 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWWDWL

Head-to-head

CSD Municipal 3–1–1 Aurora (5 last)

Aurora1-2CSD Municipal
CSD Municipal4-1Aurora
Aurora2-2CSD Municipal
Aurora1-0CSD Municipal
CSD Municipal2-1Aurora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CSD Municipal 1509 · Aurora 1499

	CSD Municipal	Draw	Aurora
Our model	70%	19%	11%
Market	71%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CSD Municipal: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CSD Municipal	Aurora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:16 +8’	1.27	5.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CSD Municipal 3–1–1 Aurora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/09/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	1-2 HT 0-1	CSD Municipal
16/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	4-1 HT 2-0	Aurora
25/01/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	2-2 HT 1-2	CSD Municipal
05/10/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	1-0 HT 0-0	CSD Municipal
27/07/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	2-1 HT 0-1	Aurora

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Antigua GFC	18	11	2	5	31	21	35
2	CSD Municipal	18	8	6	4	23	13	30
3	Xelaju	18	8	4	6	30	20	28
4	Deportivo Mixco	18	8	4	6	30	26	28
5	Guastatoya	18	8	4	6	23	22	28
6	Deportivo San Pedro	18	7	5	6	21	20	26
7	Aurora	18	8	1	9	28	28	25
8	Coban Imperial	18	7	4	7	26	27	25
9	Marquense	18	7	4	7	18	23	25
10	CSD Comunicaciones	18	6	2	10	22	28	20
11	Malacateco	18	5	4	9	18	26	19
12	Suchitepequez	18	2	6	10	20	36	12

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CSD Municipal	Aurora
Deportivo San Pedro	0-1 L	3-1 W
CSD Comunicaciones	3-1 W	2-1 W
Xelaju	0-1 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Mixco	0-0 D	2-3 L
Guastatoya	1-1 D	1-2 L
Coban Imperial	1-2 L	2-3 L
Marquense	1-1 D	1-0 W
Antigua GFC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Suchitepequez	3-0 W	2-2 D
Malacateco	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CSD Municipal (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CSD Municipal

DWDDLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
29/10	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	3-1	9	9	W
24/10	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	2	9	L
21/10	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/10	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
15/10	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
12/10	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
09/10	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
25/09	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
14/09	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	2-2	9	2	D

Aurora

LWLLWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
29/10	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
26/10	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
18/10	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	3-1	6	4	W
15/10	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
10/10	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
05/10	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/09	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
19/09	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
13/09	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-3	2-3	7	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CSD Municipal vs Aurora?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CSD Municipal win (71%). Probabilities: CSD Municipal 71%, draw 18%, Aurora 11%.

How many goals are expected in CSD Municipal vs Aurora?

The model expects 3.15 goals (CSD Municipal 2.33 · Aurora 0.82), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CSD Municipal vs Aurora?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.