Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 15/11, 02:00
Prediction: Malacateco vs CSD Municipal
Team pages: Malacateco · CSD Municipal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.16Total
Malacateco0.96
CSD Municipal1.2
1X2
Malacateco
Draw
CSD Municipal
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Malacateco
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
CSD Municipal
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Malacateco
0–1–5
CSD Municipal
(6 last)
- CSD Municipal2-2Malacateco
- CSD Municipal1-0Malacateco
- Malacateco1-3CSD Municipal
- CSD Municipal4-1Malacateco
- Malacateco2-3CSD Municipal
- Malacateco0-1CSD Municipal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Malacateco 1447 · CSD Municipal 1508
| Malacateco | Draw | CSD Municipal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 32% | 40% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSD Municipal (rating 1447 vs 1508).
- H2H favours CSD Municipal: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Malacateco | CSD Municipal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 2.2 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 5.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Malacateco 0–1–5 CSD Municipal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Malacateco |
| 29/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Malacateco |
| 07/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 1-3 HT 0-1 | CSD Municipal |
| 26/10/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Malacateco |
| 16/08/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 2-3 HT 2-2 | CSD Municipal |
| 06/04/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 0-1 HT 0-1 | CSD Municipal |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 21 | 38 |
| 2 | Deportivo Mixco | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 27 | 34 |
| 3 | Xelaju | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 31 |
| 4 | Guastatoya | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | CSD Municipal | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 30 |
| 6 | Deportivo San Pedro | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 22 | 26 |
| 7 | Aurora | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 29 | 25 |
| 8 | Coban Imperial | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 28 | 25 |
| 9 | Marquense | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 25 |
| 10 | CSD Comunicaciones | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 28 | 23 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 19 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 40 | 12 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Malacateco | CSD Municipal |
|---|---|---|
| Antigua GFC | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Suchitepequez | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Xelaju | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Guastatoya | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Coban Imperial | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Marquense | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Mixco | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 5 L | 2 W 4 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: CSD Municipal (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Malacateco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 03/11 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 29/10 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 25/10 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 21/10 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/10 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/10 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 21/09 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
CSD Municipal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 29/10 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 9 | W |
| 24/10 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 21/10 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 19/10 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 15/10 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 12/10 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 09/10 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 25/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 14/09 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Malacateco vs CSD Municipal?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CSD Municipal win (41%). Probabilities: Malacateco 29%, draw 30%, CSD Municipal 41%.
How many goals are expected in Malacateco vs CSD Municipal?
The model expects 2.16 goals (Malacateco 0.96 · CSD Municipal 1.2), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Malacateco vs CSD Municipal?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.