Football · Spain La Liga · 10/10, 14:00

Prediction: Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao

Team pages: Rayo Vallecano · Athletic Bilbao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Rayo Vallecano1.27

Athletic Bilbao1.45

1X2

32% 28% 40%

Rayo Vallecano Draw Athletic Bilbao

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLWLWD

Athletic Bilbao 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWWDD

Head-to-head

Rayo Vallecano 0–1–5 Athletic Bilbao (6 last)

Rayo Vallecano1-1Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao1-0Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Bilbao3-1Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano1-2Athletic Bilbao
Rayo Vallecano0-1Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao4-0Rayo Vallecano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rayo Vallecano 1508 · Athletic Bilbao 1524

	Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
Our model	32%	28%	40%
Market	32%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Athletic Bilbao: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rayo Vallecano	Athletic Bilbao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	3.5 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.07 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.41
2	2.25 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.32

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:27 +9’	3.00	3.40	2.25
02:14 +4’	2.90▼	3.40	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:09 +294’	3.14	3.42	2.27
00:58 +79’	3.07▼	3.41▼	2.32▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rayo Vallecano 0–1–5 Athletic Bilbao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-1 HT 1-0	Athletic Bilbao
25/08/25 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	1-0 HT 0-0	Rayo Vallecano
13/04/25 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	3-1 HT 0-1	Rayo Vallecano
01/12/24 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-2 HT 1-0	Athletic Bilbao
25/05/24 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	0-1 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
02/12/23 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	4-0 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	21
2	Real Madrid	6	5	0	1	17	6	15
3	Real Betis	6	5	0	1	8	6	15
4	Atletico Madrid	6	4	1	1	14	6	13
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	CD Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
7	Deportivo A Coruna	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
8	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
9	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
10	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
11	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	7
12	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	7
13	Real Sociedad	6	2	1	3	6	11	7
14	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
15	Villarreal	6	1	2	3	10	11	5
16	Levante	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
17	Getafe	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	5
19	Valencia	6	1	1	4	2	10	4
20	Malaga	6	0	3	3	3	11	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Athletic Bilbao
Espanyol	2-1 W	0-2 L
Real Madrid	1-4 L	2-4 L
Barcelona	2-5 L	0-2 L
CD Alaves	1-1 D	0-0 D
Sevilla	1-2 L	1-3 L
Valencia	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Rayo Vallecano (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rayo Vallecano

DWWLDLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
05/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	9	6	W
31/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-2	2-5	5	1	L
20/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
23/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
14/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	1	2	D

Athletic Bilbao

LLDLLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
12/09	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
05/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	1	W
30/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
22/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	1-3	10	7	L
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
17/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
13/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	9	0	L
10/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Bilbao win (40%). Probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 32%, draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao 40%.

How many goals are expected in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Rayo Vallecano 1.27 · Athletic Bilbao 1.45), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.