Football · Spain La Liga · 28/11, 16:15
Prediction: Malaga vs Athletic Bilbao
Team pages: Malaga · Athletic Bilbao
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Malaga1.15
Athletic Bilbao1.48
1X2
Malaga
Draw
Athletic Bilbao
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Malaga
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Athletic Bilbao
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Malaga
1–2–3
Athletic Bilbao
(6 last)
- Athletic Bilbao2-1Malaga
- Malaga3-3Athletic Bilbao
- Athletic Bilbao1-0Malaga
- Malaga2-1Athletic Bilbao
- Malaga0-1Athletic Bilbao
- Athletic Bilbao0-0Malaga
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Bilbao (rating 1440 vs 1544).
- H2H favours Athletic Bilbao: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Malaga | Athletic Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.3 | 3.3 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Malaga 1–2–3 Athletic Bilbao
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/18 Spain La Liga | Athletic Bilbao | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Malaga |
| 23/09/17 Spain La Liga | Malaga | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 05/03/17 Spain La Liga | Athletic Bilbao | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Malaga |
| 02/10/16 Spain La Liga | Malaga | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 17/04/16 Spain La Liga | Malaga | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 06/12/15 Spain La Liga | Athletic Bilbao | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Malaga |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 48 | 13 | 33 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 26 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 22 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 18 |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 9 | Deportivo A Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | 14 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | CD Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 13 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 12 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 12 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 12 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 11 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Malaga | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| CD Alaves | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Real Sociedad | 2-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Getafe | 0-1 L | 4-0 W |
| Celta Vigo | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Levante | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Malaga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 31/10 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/10 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 2-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/10 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 20/09 | Getafe Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 17/09 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Levante Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
Athletic Bilbao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Osasuna Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 01/11 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 25/10 | Getafe Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/10 | Levante Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Elche Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/08 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Malaga vs Athletic Bilbao?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Bilbao win (43%). Probabilities: Malaga 28%, draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao 43%.
How many goals are expected in Malaga vs Athletic Bilbao?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Malaga 1.15 · Athletic Bilbao 1.48), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Malaga vs Athletic Bilbao?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.