Football · Spain Segunda · 14/11, 16:15

Prediction: Real Sociedad B vs Sporting Gijon

Team pages: Real Sociedad B · Sporting Gijon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Real Sociedad B1.21

Sporting Gijon1.41

1X2

31% 28% 40%

Real Sociedad B Draw Sporting Gijon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Sociedad B 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLLLLW

Sporting Gijon 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWWLWL

Head-to-head

Real Sociedad B 3–2 Sporting Gijon (5 last)

Sporting Gijon1-0Real Sociedad B
Real Sociedad B0-1Sporting Gijon
Real Sociedad B2-1Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon0-1Real Sociedad B
Sporting Gijon0-2Real Sociedad B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Sociedad B 1433 · Sporting Gijon 1527

	Real Sociedad B	Draw	Sporting Gijon
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	32%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Gijon (rating 1433 vs 1527).
H2H favours Real Sociedad B: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Sociedad B	Sporting Gijon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.5	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	5.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.30

22.25

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.78 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:06 +2’	2.90	3.30	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:05 +2’	2.56	3.26	2.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sociedad B 3–0–2 Sporting Gijon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	1-0 HT 1-0	Real Sociedad B
06/12/25 Spain Segunda	Real Sociedad B	0-1 HT 0-0	Sporting Gijon
07/03/22 Spain Segunda	Real Sociedad B	2-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Gijon
12/11/21 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Sociedad B
28/07/21 Europe Friendlies	Sporting Gijon	0-2 HT 0-1	Real Sociedad B

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	24	10	29
2	CD Castellon	12	8	3	1	23	5	27
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21	14	23
5	Granada	12	7	2	3	20	14	23
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	15	7	22
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	14	15	22
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	22	12	21
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	19	16	21
10	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	22	22	19
11	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	22	20	18
12	Sabadell	12	4	5	3	12	11	17
13	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	17	21	17
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	15	17	15
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13	17	14
16	Celta Fortuna	13	3	4	6	19	25	13
17	Leganes	13	3	3	7	11	23	12
18	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	17	22	11
19	Real Sociedad B	12	3	2	7	15	22	11
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	16	18	10
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	13	24	10
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	10	30	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Sociedad B	Sporting Gijon
Girona	1-0 W	0-2 L
Celta Fortuna	1-4 L	3-2 W
AD Ceuta FC	1-3 L	2-0 W
FC Andorra	3-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Gijon (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Sociedad B

DDWLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Girona Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
24/10	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
17/10	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-2	2-4	10	3	L
10/10	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	0-3	1-4	10	6	L
04/10	Granada Spain Segunda	2-0	2-3	1	5	L
26/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	0-0	1-3	2	9	L
19/09	Mallorca Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
12/09	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	3-0	3-1	2	6	W
05/09	Tenerife Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
31/08	Burgos Spain Segunda	1-1	2-2	4	3	D

Sporting Gijon

LLWLWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Valladolid Spain Segunda	0-2	1-2	9	9	L
01/11	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
25/10	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
17/10	Albacete Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
04/10	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	2-1	3-2	6	8	W
27/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	11	L
19/09	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
13/09	Eldense Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Sociedad B vs Sporting Gijon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting Gijon win (40%). Probabilities: Real Sociedad B 31%, draw 28%, Sporting Gijon 40%.

How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad B vs Sporting Gijon?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Real Sociedad B 1.21 · Sporting Gijon 1.41), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad B vs Sporting Gijon?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.