Football · Spain Segunda · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: Valladolid vs CD Castellon

Team pages: Valladolid · CD Castellon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Valladolid1.25

CD Castellon1.59

1X2

29% 27% 44%

Valladolid Draw CD Castellon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Valladolid 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDWDWLLW

CD Castellon 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDLWWD

Head-to-head

Valladolid 1–1 CD Castellon (2 last)

Valladolid0-4CD Castellon
CD Castellon0-1Valladolid

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Castellon (rating 1502 vs 1607).
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valladolid	CD Castellon
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	2.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.4	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.81

Under 2.52.01

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:03

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.83 → 2.83	Pinn 2.83
X	3.57 → 3.57	Pinn 3.57
2	2.36 → 2.36	Pinn 2.36

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:41 +22’	2.83	3.57	2.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valladolid 1–0–1 CD Castellon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Spain Segunda	Valladolid	0-4 HT 0-3	CD Castellon
22/08/25 Spain Segunda	CD Castellon	0-1 HT 0-1	Valladolid

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Castellon	12	8	3	1	23	5	27
2	Almeria	12	8	2	2	23	10	26
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	19	14	24
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21	14	23
5	Granada	12	7	2	3	20	14	23
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	15	7	22
7	Sporting Gijon	12	7	1	4	13	13	22
8	Girona	12	6	3	3	22	11	21
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	19	16	21
10	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	22	22	19
11	Sabadell	12	4	5	3	12	11	17
12	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	17	21	17
13	Valladolid	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
14	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13	15	14
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13	17	14
16	Celta Fortuna	13	3	4	6	19	25	13
17	Leganes	13	3	3	7	11	23	12
18	Real Sociedad B	12	3	2	7	15	22	11
19	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	16	18	10
20	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15	20	10
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	13	24	10
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	10	30	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valladolid	CD Castellon
Leganes	4-3 W	2-0 W
Albacete	5-0 W	2-0 W
Las Palmas	2-2 D	3-0 W
AD Ceuta FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
FC Andorra	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valladolid

DWLDWDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Leganes Spain Segunda	3-1	4-3	6	6	W
23/10	Granada Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
18/10	Eldense Spain Segunda	1-2	2-3	13	8	L
12/10	Albacete Spain Segunda	4-0	5-0	7	6	W
04/10	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	2-1	2-2	6	7	D
27/09	Cordoba Spain Segunda	1-1	3-1	2	6	W
20/09	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
13/09	Oviedo Spain Segunda	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
05/09	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
30/08	Cadiz Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	6	7	D

CD Castellon

WWWWWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Burgos Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	1	8	D
25/10	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
17/10	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	2-0	3-0	6	8	W
11/10	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
04/10	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
28/09	Leganes Spain Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
19/09	Tenerife Spain Segunda	3-0	5-0	0	2	W
12/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	11	7	W
06/09	Albacete Spain Segunda	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
31/08	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valladolid vs CD Castellon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Castellon win (44%). Probabilities: Valladolid 29%, draw 27%, CD Castellon 44%.

How many goals are expected in Valladolid vs CD Castellon?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Valladolid 1.25 · CD Castellon 1.59), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Valladolid vs CD Castellon?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.