Football · Slovakia 3. Liga · 13/11, 18:30

Prediction: MSK Senec vs FC Nitra

Team pages: MSK Senec · FC Nitra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

MSK Senec0.97

FC Nitra2.25

1X2

15% 20% 66%

MSK Senec Draw FC Nitra

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

MSK Senec 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWDWW

FC Nitra 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MSK Senec 1491 · FC Nitra 1615

	MSK Senec	Draw	FC Nitra
Our model	14%	21%	65%
Market	15%	19%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Nitra (rating 1491 vs 1615).
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MSK Senec	FC Nitra
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	3.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	4 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.8	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.75

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +3’	6.00	4.75	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Slovakia 3. Liga · 3. Liga 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Nitra	13	12	1	0	46	10	37
2	Puchov	14	8	4	2	36	10	28
3	OFK Dunajska Luzna	14	8	3	3	19	11	27
4	Spartak Myjava	13	6	4	3	24	16	22
5	TJ Kovo Belusa	14	5	6	3	29	23	21
6	Dunajska Streda B	14	6	3	5	25	19	21
7	SK 1923 Gabcikovo	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
8	MSK Senec	14	6	1	7	15	23	19
9	FK Nove Zamky	13	5	3	5	15	19	18
10	AS Trencin B	14	5	2	7	25	25	17
11	FC Banik Prievidza	13	5	1	7	20	23	16
12	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	14	4	3	7	22	31	15
13	OK Castkovce	14	4	2	8	21	30	14
14	KFC Komarno B	14	4	2	8	16	35	14
15	Raca Bratislava	14	2	4	8	16	37	10
16	Slovan Duslo Šala	13	1	3	9	8	27	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MSK Senec	FC Nitra
AS Trencin B	1-0 W	4-2 W
TJ Kovo Belusa	2-2 D	4-2 W
FK Nove Zamky	1-0 W	5-1 W
Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	1-3 L	5-0 W
OFK Dunajska Luzna	1-0 W	1-0 W
KFC Komarno B	1-2 L	5-1 W
Raca Bratislava	0-1 L	6-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	7 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Nitra (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MSK Senec

LLWLLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	SK 1923 Gabcikovo Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
25/10	AS Trencin B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
21/10	TJ Kovo Belusa Slovakia 3. Liga	1-2	2-2	5	9	D
16/10	FK Nove Zamky Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
10/10	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
02/10	Spartak Myjava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
26/09	Puchov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
18/09	OFK Dunajska Luzna Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
13/09	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
04/09	Raca Bratislava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	10	L

FC Nitra

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	OFK Dunajska Luzna Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
24/10	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	3-0	5-1	8	2	W
18/10	TJ Kovo Belusa Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	4-2	7	1	W
10/10	Raca Bratislava Slovakia 3. Liga	4-0	6-0	7	1	W
04/10	AS Trencin B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-2	4-2	6	5	W
26/09	Slovan Duslo Šala Slovakia 3. Liga	3-0	4-0	8	6	W
19/09	FK Nove Zamky Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	5-1	–	–	W
12/09	Dunajska Streda B Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	11	3	W
06/09	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC Banik Prievidza Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	2-0	11	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MSK Senec vs FC Nitra?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Nitra win (66%). Probabilities: MSK Senec 15%, draw 20%, FC Nitra 66%.

How many goals are expected in MSK Senec vs FC Nitra?

The model expects 3.22 goals (MSK Senec 0.97 · FC Nitra 2.25), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in MSK Senec vs FC Nitra?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.