Football · Slovakia 3. Liga · 16/10, 18:30

Prediction: MSK Senec vs FK Nove Zamky

Team pages: MSK Senec · FK Nove Zamky

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

MSK Senec1.44

FK Nove Zamky1.57

1X2

34% 26% 40%

MSK Senec Draw FK Nove Zamky

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

MSK Senec 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWLLL

FK Nove Zamky 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLLLDW

Head-to-head

MSK Senec 1–1 FK Nove Zamky (2 last)

MSK Senec3-0FK Nove Zamky
FK Nove Zamky2-0MSK Senec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MSK Senec 1448 · FK Nove Zamky 1507

	MSK Senec	Draw	FK Nove Zamky
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Nove Zamky (rating 1448 vs 1507).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MSK Senec	FK Nove Zamky
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.6	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.76 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.50 → 2.25▼	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:49 +19’	2.35	3.50	2.50
13:07 +18’	2.63▲	3.50	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:41 +22’	2.82	3.15	2.21
11:03 +4’	2.77▼	3.24▲	2.20▼
14:35 +47’	2.76▼	3.28▲	2.19▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MSK Senec 1–0–1 FK Nove Zamky

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Slovakia 3. Liga	MSK Senec	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Nove Zamky
16/08/25 Slovakia 3. Liga	FK Nove Zamky	2-0 HT 2-0	MSK Senec

Standings · Slovakia 3. Liga · 3. Liga 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Nitra	10	9	1	0	36	7	28
2	Puchov	10	5	4	1	19	6	19
3	Spartak Myjava	10	5	3	2	18	11	18
4	OFK Dunajska Luzna	10	5	3	2	14	9	18
5	TJ Kovo Belusa	10	4	5	1	20	12	17
6	FK Nove Zamky	10	4	3	3	13	17	15
7	AS Trencin B	10	4	2	4	21	19	14
8	SK 1923 Gabcikovo	10	4	2	4	16	15	14
9	FC Banik Prievidza	10	4	1	5	16	16	13
10	Dunajska Streda B	10	3	2	5	19	18	11
11	KFC Komarno B	10	3	2	5	11	23	11
12	Raca Bratislava	10	2	4	4	13	21	10
13	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	10	2	3	5	15	28	9
14	MSK Senec	10	3	0	7	9	20	9
15	OK Castkovce	10	2	2	6	17	25	8
16	Slovan Duslo Šala	10	1	3	6	8	18	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MSK Senec	FK Nove Zamky
Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	1-3 L	1-3 L
Spartak Myjava	0-1 L	2-1 W
Puchov	0-5 L	1-0 W
OFK Dunajska Luzna	1-0 W	1-1 D
KFC Komarno B	1-2 L	2-0 W
Raca Bratislava	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Nove Zamky (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MSK Senec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
02/10	Spartak Myjava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
26/09	Puchov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
18/09	OFK Dunajska Luzna Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
13/09	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
04/09	Raca Bratislava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	10	L
29/08	Slovan Duslo Šala Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-3	6	6	L
21/08	Dunajska Streda B Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
15/08	FC Banik Prievidza Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
07/08	OK Castkovce Slovakia 3. Liga	1-2	3-2	6	6	W

FK Nove Zamky

DWDWWLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	SK 1923 Gabcikovo Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
04/10	TJ Kovo Belusa Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/09	AS Trencin B Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	2-5	6	5	L
19/09	FC Nitra Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	1-5	–	–	L
12/09	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
05/09	Spartak Myjava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
29/08	Puchov Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	OFK Dunajska Luzna Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
15/08	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	Raca Bratislava Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-1	9	11	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MSK Senec vs FK Nove Zamky?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Nove Zamky win (40%). Probabilities: MSK Senec 34%, draw 26%, FK Nove Zamky 40%.

How many goals are expected in MSK Senec vs FK Nove Zamky?

The model expects 3.01 goals (MSK Senec 1.44 · FK Nove Zamky 1.57), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in MSK Senec vs FK Nove Zamky?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.