Football · Bulgaria Second League · 15/11, 13:30

Prediction: Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Montana

Team pages: Pirin Blagoevgrad · Montana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Pirin Blagoevgrad0.92

Montana1.62

1X2

21% 25% 54%

Pirin Blagoevgrad Draw Montana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Pirin Blagoevgrad 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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Montana 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Pirin Blagoevgrad 1–2–3 Montana (6 last)

Pirin Blagoevgrad0-4Montana
Montana1-1Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad1-1Montana
Montana2-0Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad0-3Montana
Montana1-2Pirin Blagoevgrad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pirin Blagoevgrad 1391 · Montana 1438

	Pirin Blagoevgrad	Draw	Montana
Our model	20%	27%	53%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Montana (rating 1391 vs 1438).
H2H favours Montana: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pirin Blagoevgrad	Montana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2.2	1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.4	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	5.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.80

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +58’	4.10	3.80	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pirin Blagoevgrad 1–2–3 Montana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/25 Bulgaria Second League	Pirin Blagoevgrad	0-4 HT 0-2	Montana
18/10/24 Bulgaria Second League	Montana	1-1 HT 1-0	Pirin Blagoevgrad
28/09/19 Bulgaria B PFG	Pirin Blagoevgrad	1-1 HT 1-0	Montana
19/05/19 Bulgaria B PFG	Montana	2-0 HT 0-0	Pirin Blagoevgrad
10/11/18 Bulgaria B PFG	Pirin Blagoevgrad	0-3 HT 0-0	Montana
26/02/17 Bulgaria First League	Montana	1-2 HT 1-0	Pirin Blagoevgrad

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	15	9	4	2	32	14	31
2	Chernomorets Burgas	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Vihren Sandanski	15	8	5	2	29	14	29
4	FK Fratria	14	7	4	3	24	14	25
5	Yantra Gabrovo	15	7	3	5	22	17	24
6	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	15	7	2	6	32	25	23
7	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	15	6	5	4	14	13	23
8	Beroe	15	6	4	5	24	21	22
9	Ludogorets Razgrad II	14	6	4	4	20	14	22
10	Spartak Pleven	15	6	3	6	17	26	21
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	14	6	3	5	23	22	21
12	Rilski Sportist	15	5	5	5	16	16	20
13	Marek Dupnitsa	15	5	3	7	17	21	18
14	Nesebar	15	5	3	7	22	23	18
15	Montana	15	4	3	8	19	30	15
16	Sportist Svoge	15	2	6	7	12	21	12
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	14	2	4	8	14	27	10
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	15	0	2	13	8	41	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pirin Blagoevgrad	Montana
Beroe	3-3 D	0-0 D
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	0-2 L	1-1 D
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	0-2 L	3-0 W
Spartak Pleven	1-1 D	1-2 L
FK Fratria	1-2 L	2-1 W
Ludogorets Razgrad II	0-3 L	2-3 L
Chernomorets Burgas	0-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Montana (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pirin Blagoevgrad

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-3	4	11	D
30/10	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
23/10	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
26/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
20/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-3	0-3	4	2	L
07/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
02/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	–	–	L

Montana

WDLLLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
02/11	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
28/10	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
13/10	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-3	1	9	L
27/09	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
21/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-3	0-5	7	4	L
13/09	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-4	7	7	L
08/09	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
03/09	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
30/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Montana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Montana win (54%). Probabilities: Pirin Blagoevgrad 21%, draw 25%, Montana 54%.

How many goals are expected in Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Montana?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Pirin Blagoevgrad 0.92 · Montana 1.62), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Montana?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.