Football · Bulgaria Second League · 14/11, 12:30

Prediction: Marek Dupnitsa vs Chernomorets Burgas

Team pages: Marek Dupnitsa · Chernomorets Burgas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Marek Dupnitsa1.23

Chernomorets Burgas1.53

1X2

29% 28% 43%

Marek Dupnitsa Draw Chernomorets Burgas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Marek Dupnitsa 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDWDLL

Chernomorets Burgas 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Marek Dupnitsa 3–1 Chernomorets Burgas (4 last)

Marek Dupnitsa3-0Chernomorets Burgas
Chernomorets Burgas3-0Marek Dupnitsa
Marek Dupnitsa3-1Chernomorets Burgas
Chernomorets Burgas0-2Marek Dupnitsa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marek Dupnitsa 1498 · Chernomorets Burgas 1559

	Marek Dupnitsa	Draw	Chernomorets Burgas
Our model	29%	28%	43%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chernomorets Burgas (rating 1498 vs 1559).
H2H favours Marek Dupnitsa: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marek Dupnitsa	Chernomorets Burgas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	2.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:56 +7’	3.10	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marek Dupnitsa 3–0–1 Chernomorets Burgas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Bulgaria Second League	Marek Dupnitsa	3-0 HT 1-0	Chernomorets Burgas
08/11/25 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	3-0 HT 3-0	Marek Dupnitsa
29/11/23 Bulgaria Second League	Marek Dupnitsa	3-1 HT 1-0	Chernomorets Burgas
18/07/23 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	0-2 HT 0-2	Marek Dupnitsa

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	15	8	5	2	29	14	29
2	CSKA Sofia II	14	8	4	2	29	13	28
3	Chernomorets Burgas	14	8	4	2	24	10	28
4	Yantra Gabrovo	14	7	2	5	19	14	23
5	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	15	6	5	4	14	13	23
6	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	15	7	2	6	32	25	23
7	FK Fratria	13	6	4	3	18	12	22
8	Beroe	15	6	4	5	24	21	22
9	Ludogorets Razgrad II	14	6	4	4	20	14	22
10	Spartak Pleven	15	6	3	6	17	26	21
11	Rilski Sportist	14	5	5	4	15	13	20
12	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	13	6	2	5	22	21	20
13	Marek Dupnitsa	15	5	3	7	17	21	18
14	Nesebar	15	5	3	7	22	23	18
15	Montana	14	4	2	8	18	29	14
16	Sportist Svoge	14	2	6	6	10	15	12
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	14	2	4	8	14	27	10
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	15	0	2	13	8	41	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marek Dupnitsa	Chernomorets Burgas
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-3 L	0-1 L
Pirin Blagoevgrad	3-0 W	3-0 W
Nesebar	1-0 W	2-1 W
Sportist Svoge	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chernomorets Burgas (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marek Dupnitsa

DWLWLDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
30/10	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
23/10	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	8	7	D
10/10	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	3-1	3-2	3	5	W
26/09	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
20/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-3	8	9	L
13/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	3-0	3-0	9	2	W
06/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	2	8	L
02/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
29/08	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D

Chernomorets Burgas

LWWDWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-1	10	3	W
23/10	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
10/10	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	1	3	W
27/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/09	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-2	0	4	W
13/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
07/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
02/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
23/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marek Dupnitsa vs Chernomorets Burgas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chernomorets Burgas win (43%). Probabilities: Marek Dupnitsa 29%, draw 28%, Chernomorets Burgas 43%.

How many goals are expected in Marek Dupnitsa vs Chernomorets Burgas?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Marek Dupnitsa 1.23 · Chernomorets Burgas 1.53), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Marek Dupnitsa vs Chernomorets Burgas?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.