Football · Austria 2. Liga · 20/11, 18:30

Prediction: SV Kapfenberg vs Hertha Wels

Team pages: SV Kapfenberg · Hertha Wels

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

SV Kapfenberg1.52

Hertha Wels1.61

1X2

35% 25% 39%

SV Kapfenberg Draw Hertha Wels

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SV Kapfenberg 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWDDL

Hertha Wels 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SV Kapfenberg 1–2 Hertha Wels (3 last)

SV Kapfenberg0-1Hertha Wels
Hertha Wels3-1SV Kapfenberg
SV Kapfenberg3-2Hertha Wels

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SV Kapfenberg 1438 · Hertha Wels 1443

	SV Kapfenberg	Draw	Hertha Wels
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	35%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hertha Wels: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SV Kapfenberg	Hertha Wels
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1.2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	1.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.60

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.62
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.74
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.43 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:01 +136’	2.55	3.60	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +12’	2.65	3.74	2.40
10:16 +11’	2.62▼	3.74	2.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SV Kapfenberg 1–0–2 Hertha Wels

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/09/26 Austria Cup	SV Kapfenberg	0-1 HT 0-0	Hertha Wels
13/03/26 Austria 2. Liga	Hertha Wels	3-1 HT 3-0	SV Kapfenberg
12/09/25 Austria 2. Liga	SV Kapfenberg	3-2 HT 1-1	Hertha Wels

Standings · Austria 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Blau Weiss Linz	12	10	1	1	35	6	31
2	First Vienna FC 1894	12	8	2	2	22	16	26
3	FK Austria Vienna II	12	7	2	3	20	15	23
4	FC Liefering	12	6	2	4	26	24	20
5	SV Austria Salzburg	12	6	1	5	21	18	19
6	Admira Wacker	12	6	1	5	15	13	19
7	FC Wacker Innsbruck	12	5	2	5	16	15	17
8	SKU Amstetten	12	4	5	3	20	20	17
9	SW Bregenz	12	4	4	4	15	16	16
10	ASK Voitsberg	12	4	3	5	23	21	15
11	St Polten	12	4	3	5	12	13	15
12	Sturm Graz II	12	4	2	6	21	25	14
13	Floridsdorfer AC	12	4	2	6	16	21	14
14	Rapid Vienna II	12	2	2	8	12	25	8
15	SV Kapfenberg	12	2	2	8	14	25	8
16	Hertha Wels	12	2	2	8	15	30	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SV Kapfenberg	Hertha Wels
ASK Voitsberg	0-4 L	2-6 L
St Polten	1-1 D	1-2 L
Sturm Graz II	2-0 W	1-3 L
FK Austria Vienna II	0-1 L	2-2 D
SKU Amstetten	3-4 L	1-1 D
Admira Wacker	0-1 L	1-3 L
FC Blau Weiss Linz	2-1 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: SV Kapfenberg (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SV Kapfenberg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	ASK Voitsberg Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-4	3	4	L
31/10	Floridsdorfer AC Austria 2. Liga	2-2	2-2	4	1	D
23/10	St Polten Austria 2. Liga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
18/10	Sturm Graz II Austria 2. Liga	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
09/10	FK Austria Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
18/09	SKU Amstetten Austria 2. Liga	1-2	3-4	3	2	L
11/09	Admira Wacker Austria 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
28/08	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
21/08	SV Austria Salzburg Austria 2. Liga	1-2	2-3	3	7	L
15/08	FC Wacker Innsbruck Austria 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L

Hertha Wels

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Sturm Graz II Austria 2. Liga	0-1	1-3	4	8	L
30/10	St Polten Austria 2. Liga	0-2	1-2	5	3	L
23/10	ASK Voitsberg Austria 2. Liga	1-4	2-6	5	3	L
16/10	FK Austria Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	0-2	2-2	10	5	D
10/10	SW Bregenz Austria 2. Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
18/09	First Vienna FC 1894 Austria 2. Liga	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
12/09	FC Blau Weiss Linz Austria 2. Liga	1-0	1-4	7	4	L
28/08	Admira Wacker Austria 2. Liga	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
21/08	SKU Amstetten Austria 2. Liga	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
14/08	Rapid Vienna II Austria 2. Liga	0-1	1-2	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SV Kapfenberg vs Hertha Wels?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hertha Wels win (39%). Probabilities: SV Kapfenberg 35%, draw 25%, Hertha Wels 39%.

How many goals are expected in SV Kapfenberg vs Hertha Wels?

The model expects 3.14 goals (SV Kapfenberg 1.52 · Hertha Wels 1.61), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SV Kapfenberg vs Hertha Wels?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.