Football · Romania Liga I · 14/09, 20:00

Prediction: FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Team pages: FCSB · Petrolul Ploiesti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

FCSB2.22

Petrolul Ploiesti0.95

1X2

65% 21% 14%

FCSB Draw Petrolul Ploiesti

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FCSB 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWDDWLLL

Petrolul Ploiesti 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWWLWW

Head-to-head

FCSB 3–3–0 Petrolul Ploiesti (6 last)

FCSB3-1Petrolul Ploiesti
FCSB1-1Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti0-1FCSB
Petrolul Ploiesti0-0FCSB
FCSB1-1Petrolul Ploiesti
FCSB1-0Petrolul Ploiesti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FCSB 1501 · Petrolul Ploiesti 1497

	FCSB	Draw	Petrolul Ploiesti
Our model	65%	21%	14%
Market	65%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FCSB: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FCSB	Petrolul Ploiesti
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.1	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	5.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.20

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 02:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.38▼	Pinn 1.42
X	3.90 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.60 ★
2	6.00 → 6.50▲	Pinn 6.81

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:25 +16’	1.44	3.90	6.00
01:40 +5’	1.50▲	3.75▼	5.25▼
15:58 +3’	1.44▼	4.00▲	6.00▲
14:23 +10’	1.33▼	4.50▲	7.50▲
01:51 +16’	1.38▲	4.20▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:35 +68’	1.47	4.39	6.12
09:41 +3’	1.49▲	4.25▼	6.09▼
10:22 +22’	1.48▼	4.38▲	6.13▲
14:17 +103’	1.44▼	4.56▲	6.37▲
22:07 +91’	1.45▲	4.53▼	6.29▼
21:26 +56’	1.44▼	4.58▲	6.30▲
11:53 +160’	1.36▼	4.96▲	7.38▲
22:58 +4’	1.37▲	4.90▼	7.23▼
00:49 +78’	1.42▲	4.60▼	6.81▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FCSB 3–3–0 Petrolul Ploiesti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Romania Liga I	FCSB	3-1 HT 2-0	Petrolul Ploiesti
22/11/25 Romania Liga I	FCSB	1-1 HT 1-0	Petrolul Ploiesti
19/07/25 Romania Liga I	Petrolul Ploiesti	0-1 HT 0-0	FCSB
06/02/25 Romania Liga I	Petrolul Ploiesti	0-0 HT 0-0	FCSB
21/09/24 Romania Liga I	FCSB	1-1 HT 1-0	Petrolul Ploiesti
03/03/24 Romania Liga I	FCSB	1-0 HT 0-0	Petrolul Ploiesti

Standings · Romania Liga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucharest	9	6	2	1	19	7	20
2	Rapid Bucuresti	8	4	3	1	9	4	15
3	Petrolul Ploiesti	8	5	0	3	9	10	15
4	CS U Craiova	8	4	2	2	18	9	14
5	Farul Constanta	9	3	5	1	14	10	14
6	FCSB	8	3	2	3	11	10	11
7	FC Botosani	8	2	4	2	12	8	10
8	CS Corvinul Hunedoara	8	2	4	2	8	6	10
9	CFR Cluj	7	3	1	3	11	10	10
10	Otelul Galati	8	2	4	2	9	9	10
11	FC Arges Pitesti	8	3	1	4	4	6	10
12	ACS Sepsi	8	2	4	2	4	8	10
13	ACS UTA Batrana Doamna	9	2	3	4	13	15	9
14	Universitatea Cluj	7	3	0	4	9	13	9
15	FC Voluntari	8	2	2	4	8	18	8
16	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc	9	0	1	8	6	21	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FCSB	Petrolul Ploiesti
Dinamo Bucharest	1-2 L	1-0 W
FC Botosani	3-2 W	1-1 D
FC Arges Pitesti	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FCSB (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FCSB

DDWWDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Dinamo Bucharest Romania Liga I	0-1	1-2	6	9	L
30/08	ACS UTA Batrana Doamna Romania Liga I	0-1	1-3	5	2	L
23/08	CFR Cluj Romania Liga I	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
17/08	FC Botosani Romania Liga I	1-1	3-2	13	6	W
10/08	ACS Sepsi Romania Liga I	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
03/08	Farul Constanta Romania Liga I	0-2	2-2	5	6	D
26/07	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc Romania Liga I	2-0	2-0	8	5	W
17/07	FC Arges Pitesti Romania Liga I	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
29/05	Dinamo Bucharest Romania Liga I	1-0	1-1	2	12	D
24/05	FC Botosani Romania Liga I	1-1	3-3	7	7	D

Petrolul Ploiesti

DLWLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	CS Corvinul Hunedoara Romania Liga I	1-0	2-0	1	10	W
28/08	Universitatea Cluj Romania Liga I	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
21/08	Rapid Bucuresti Romania Liga I	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
14/08	FC Voluntari Romania Liga I	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
09/08	Otelul Galati Romania Liga I	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
01/08	CS U Craiova Romania Liga I	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
24/07	FC Arges Pitesti Romania Liga I	0-1	0-1	6	10	L
19/07	Dinamo Bucharest Romania Liga I	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/05	Otelul Galati Romania Liga I	1-3	1-5	7	5	L
10/05	FC Botosani Romania Liga I	0-0	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FCSB win (65%). Probabilities: FCSB 65%, draw 21%, Petrolul Ploiesti 14%.

How many goals are expected in FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti?

The model expects 3.17 goals (FCSB 2.22 · Petrolul Ploiesti 0.95), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.