Football · Scotland Premier League Women · 15/11, 14:00

Prediction: Aberdeen (W) vs Motherwell (W)

Team pages: Aberdeen (W) · Motherwell (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Aberdeen (W)1.13

Motherwell (W)2.07

1X2

20% 22% 58%

Aberdeen (W) Draw Motherwell (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Aberdeen (W) 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

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Motherwell (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Aberdeen (W) 1–1–4 Motherwell (W) (6 last)

Motherwell (W)1-0Aberdeen (W)
Motherwell (W)2-2Aberdeen (W)
Aberdeen (W)3-4Motherwell (W)
Aberdeen (W)2-1Motherwell (W)
Motherwell (W)2-0Aberdeen (W)
Motherwell (W)4-2Aberdeen (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aberdeen (W) 1379 · Motherwell (W) 1462

	Aberdeen (W)	Draw	Motherwell (W)
Our model	19%	23%	58%
Market	20%	21%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Motherwell (W) (rating 1379 vs 1462).
H2H favours Motherwell (W): 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aberdeen (W)	Motherwell (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2.9	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.4	0.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 1.2	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.2 / 0.1	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.20

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +5’	4.50	4.20	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aberdeen (W) 1–1–4 Motherwell (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/26 Scotland Premier League Women	Motherwell (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Aberdeen (W)
17/05/26 Scotland Premier League Women	Motherwell (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Aberdeen (W)
15/03/26 Scotland Premier League Women	Aberdeen (W)	3-4 HT 1-2	Motherwell (W)
25/01/26 Scotland Premier League Women	Aberdeen (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Motherwell (W)
28/09/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Motherwell (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	Aberdeen (W)
16/02/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Motherwell (W)	4-2 HT 1-2	Aberdeen (W)

Standings · Scotland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rangers (W)	11	11	0	0	37	7	33
2	Hearts (W)	11	8	1	2	36	12	25
3	Celtic (W)	11	8	0	3	27	15	24
4	Glasgow City (W)	10	6	2	2	36	11	20
5	Hibernian (W)	11	6	1	4	31	16	19
6	Motherwell (W)	11	3	1	7	8	28	10
7	Montrose LFC (W)	11	3	0	8	16	32	9
8	Spartans (W)	11	2	2	7	8	37	8
9	Partick Thistle (W)	10	2	2	6	14	25	5
10	Aberdeen (W)	11	0	1	10	5	35	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aberdeen (W)	Motherwell (W)
Spartans (W)	1-1 D	0-2 L
Montrose LFC (W)	0-2 L	3-1 W
Celtic (W)	0-6 L	3-1 W
Rangers (W)	1-3 L	0-4 L
Partick Thistle (W)	0-3 L	1-1 D
Glasgow City (W)	0-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Motherwell (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aberdeen (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Hibernian (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-3	2-5	1	0	L
04/11	Spartans (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	1-1	0	3	D
21/10	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
18/10	Celtic (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-6	1	2	L
04/10	Motherwell (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
27/09	Hibernian (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	0	0	L
20/09	Rangers (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-3	1-3	0	0	L
06/09	Spartans (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-1	1-3	4	2	L
30/08	Partick Thistle (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-3	2	0	L
23/08	Glasgow City (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	0-3	0	1	L

Motherwell (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Celtic (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	3-1	4	2	W
25/10	Rangers (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-4	0	1	L
21/10	Partick Thistle (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
18/10	Glasgow City (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-3	0-3	1	3	L
04/10	Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
27/09	Spartans (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	0-2	9	1	L
18/09	Celtic (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
06/09	Rangers (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
30/08	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	–	3-1	–	–	W
23/08	Hearts (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-3	0-5	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aberdeen (W) vs Motherwell (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Motherwell (W) win (58%). Probabilities: Aberdeen (W) 20%, draw 22%, Motherwell (W) 58%.

How many goals are expected in Aberdeen (W) vs Motherwell (W)?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Aberdeen (W) 1.13 · Motherwell (W) 2.07), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Aberdeen (W) vs Motherwell (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.