Football · Russia Super Cup · 18/07, 18:30
Prediction: Zenit St Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Zenit St Petersburg1.66
Spartak Moscow0.74
1X2
Zenit St Petersburg
Draw
Spartak Moscow
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Zenit St Petersburg
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Spartak Moscow
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Zenit St Petersburg
2–3–1
Spartak Moscow
(6 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zenit St Petersburg (rating 1595 vs 1512).
- H2H favours Zenit St Petersburg: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Zenit St Petersburg | Spartak Moscow | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | – / 5.5 | – / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Zenit St Petersburg 2–3–1 Spartak Moscow
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/26 Russia Cup | Zenit St Petersburg | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Spartak Moscow |
| 14/03/26 Russia Premier League | Zenit St Petersburg | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Spartak Moscow |
| 16/08/25 Russia Premier League | Spartak Moscow | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Zenit St Petersburg |
| 16/03/25 Russia Premier League | Spartak Moscow | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Zenit St Petersburg |
| 11/02/25 Club Friendly List | Zenit St Petersburg | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Spartak Moscow |
| 24/08/24 Russia Premier League | Zenit St Petersburg | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Spartak Moscow |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Zenit St Petersburg | Spartak Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Makhachkala | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Rostov | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| CSKA Moscow | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| FC Akhmat Grozny | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Krasnodar | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Zenit St Petersburg (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zenit St Petersburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Neftchi Fergana Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/07 | Dynamo Makhachkala Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Rostov Russia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | PFC Sochi Russia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | CSKA Moscow Russia Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | FC Akhmat Grozny Russia Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 22/04 | Lokomotiv Moscow Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 12 | D |
| 19/04 | Dynamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Krasnodar Russia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 08/04 | Spartak Moscow Russia Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
Spartak Moscow
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Rubin Kazan Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Krasnodar Russia Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | Dynamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 11/05 | Rubin Kazan Russia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 06/05 | CSKA Moscow Russia Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 01/05 | Krylia Sovetov Russia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Nizhny Novgorod Russia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | Krasnodar Russia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 19/04 | FC Akhmat Grozny Russia Premier League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Rostov Russia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zenit St Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Zenit St Petersburg win (58%). Probabilities: Zenit St Petersburg 58%, draw 26%, Spartak Moscow 15%.
How many goals are expected in Zenit St Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Zenit St Petersburg 1.66 · Spartak Moscow 0.74), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Zenit St Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.