Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 31/07, 18:30

Prediction: Vilnius Football Academy vs FK Panevezys II

Team pages: Vilnius Football Academy · FK Panevezys II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.25Total

Vilnius Football Academy2.6

FK Panevezys II1.65

1X2

57% 20% 23%

Vilnius Football Academy Draw FK Panevezys II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vilnius Football Academy 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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FK Panevezys II 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLWDDD

Head-to-head

Vilnius Football Academy 0–1–0 FK Panevezys II (1 last)

FK Panevezys II3-3Vilnius Football Academy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vilnius Football Academy 1531 · FK Panevezys II 1514

	Vilnius Football Academy	Draw	FK Panevezys II
Our model	58%	19%	23%
Market	57%	21%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 4.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 15.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vilnius Football Academy	FK Panevezys II
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.5	2.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.7	1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.2	3.5 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.7	4.5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.33

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.10 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:19 +8’	1.55	4.33	4.10
20:01 +6’	1.57▲	4.33	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vilnius Football Academy 0–1–0 FK Panevezys II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/06/26 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Panevezys II	3-3 HT 2-1	Vilnius Football Academy

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	14	10	3	1	33	10	33
2	Vilnius Football Academy	14	9	3	2	47	17	30
3	Suduva Marijampole II	14	8	3	3	26	17	27
4	FM Klaipedos	14	8	2	4	24	16	26
5	FK Sveikata	14	7	3	4	28	19	24
6	FK Panevezys II	14	6	5	3	35	24	23
7	FK Sirvena	14	6	4	4	27	19	22
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	14	5	4	5	26	23	19
9	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	14	5	3	6	26	25	18
10	FKS Ukmerge	14	5	2	7	20	20	17
11	Banga Gargzdai II	14	4	3	7	19	20	15
12	FK Silute	14	3	4	7	18	28	13
13	Utenis Utena	14	3	3	8	15	33	12
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	14	2	2	10	18	54	8
15	DFK Dainava II	14	2	0	12	18	55	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vilnius Football Academy	FK Panevezys II
Utenis Utena	6-1 W	2-2 D
FK Sirvena	1-1 D	2-2 D
FK Viltis Vilnius	9-0 W	6-0 W
Suduva Marijampole II	4-0 W	0-1 L
FKS Ukmerge	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sirijus Klaipeda	2-4 L	1-5 L
DFK Dainava II	4-2 W	6-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vilnius Football Academy (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vilnius Football Academy

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	3-3	4	10	D
26/06	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-2	9	2	L
12/06	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	4-0	6-1	4	5	W
05/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-1	8	7	D
31/05	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	6-0	9-0	3	5	W
22/05	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	4-0	19	8	W
15/05	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-1	8	8	D
08/05	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-4	3	7	L
03/05	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	4-2	7	4	W
28/04	FK Riteriai Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

FK Panevezys II

DWWLDLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	3-3	4	10	D
22/06	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	2-2	8	3	D
19/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
14/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	6-0	7	4	W
10/06	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
31/05	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
23/05	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	1-5	11	5	L
17/05	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	6-2	–	–	W
05/05	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	4-1	11	4	W
02/05	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	1-3	4-4	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vilnius Football Academy vs FK Panevezys II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vilnius Football Academy win (57%). Probabilities: Vilnius Football Academy 57%, draw 20%, FK Panevezys II 23%.

How many goals are expected in Vilnius Football Academy vs FK Panevezys II?

The model expects 4.25 goals (Vilnius Football Academy 2.6 · FK Panevezys II 1.65), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vilnius Football Academy vs FK Panevezys II?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.