Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 31/07, 17:00

Prediction: FK Sirvena vs Banga Gargzdai II

Team pages: Banga Gargzdai II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

FK Sirvena1.63

Banga Gargzdai II1.61

1X2

39% 24% 38%

FK Sirvena Draw Banga Gargzdai II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Sirvena 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLLDWDWDDW

Banga Gargzdai II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDLWWL

Head-to-head

FK Sirvena 1–2 Banga Gargzdai II (3 last)

Banga Gargzdai II1-2FK Sirvena
Banga Gargzdai II3-0FK Sirvena
FK Sirvena0-2Banga Gargzdai II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Sirvena 1526 · Banga Gargzdai II 1508

	FK Sirvena	Draw	Banga Gargzdai II
Our model	38%	25%	37%
Market	39%	23%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Banga Gargzdai II: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Sirvena	Banga Gargzdai II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 6.8	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.00

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +11’	2.30	4.00	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Sirvena 1–0–2 Banga Gargzdai II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Banga Gargzdai II	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Sirvena
28/10/25 Lithuania II Lyga	Banga Gargzdai II	3-0 HT 0-0	FK Sirvena
18/06/25 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Sirvena	0-2 HT 0-1	Banga Gargzdai II

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	14	10	3	1	33	10	33
2	Vilnius Football Academy	14	9	3	2	47	17	30
3	Suduva Marijampole II	14	8	3	3	26	17	27
4	FM Klaipedos	14	8	2	4	24	16	26
5	FK Sveikata	14	7	3	4	28	19	24
6	FK Panevezys II	14	6	5	3	35	24	23
7	FK Sirvena	14	6	4	4	27	19	22
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	14	5	4	5	26	23	19
9	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	14	5	3	6	26	25	18
10	FKS Ukmerge	14	5	2	7	20	20	17
11	Banga Gargzdai II	14	4	3	7	19	20	15
12	FK Silute	14	3	4	7	18	28	13
13	Utenis Utena	14	3	3	8	15	33	12
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	14	2	2	10	18	54	8
15	DFK Dainava II	14	2	0	12	18	55	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Sirvena	Banga Gargzdai II
FK Sveikata	1-1 D	2-3 L
FK Viltis Vilnius	2-2 D	4-0 W
Suduva Marijampole II	0-1 L	2-1 W
FKS Ukmerge	1-2 L	0-1 L
Sirijus Klaipeda	3-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Sirvena

WLLDWDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
28/06	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	2-2	11	6	D
12/06	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	3-2	5	7	W
05/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
30/05	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	3-0	10	7	W
17/05	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
08/05	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
03/05	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
25/04	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W

Banga Gargzdai II

LDWWLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	4-0	5	3	W
22/06	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
12/06	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
05/06	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
31/05	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-3	6	5	L
25/05	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
17/05	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
11/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-3	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Sirvena vs Banga Gargzdai II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Sirvena win (39%). Probabilities: FK Sirvena 39%, draw 24%, Banga Gargzdai II 38%.

How many goals are expected in FK Sirvena vs Banga Gargzdai II?

The model expects 3.24 goals (FK Sirvena 1.63 · Banga Gargzdai II 1.61), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Sirvena vs Banga Gargzdai II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.