Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 01/08, 15:00

Prediction: FKS Ukmerge vs FM Klaipedos

Team pages: FKS Ukmerge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

FKS Ukmerge1.6

FM Klaipedos1.48

1X2

40% 25% 35%

FKS Ukmerge Draw FM Klaipedos

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FKS Ukmerge 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLDLWLWL

FM Klaipedos 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWDWWW

Head-to-head

FKS Ukmerge 2–1–3 FM Klaipedos (6 last)

FM Klaipedos3-0FKS Ukmerge
FKS Ukmerge4-2FM Klaipedos
FM Klaipedos1-4FKS Ukmerge
FKS Ukmerge2-2FM Klaipedos
FM Klaipedos4-1FKS Ukmerge
FM Klaipedos3-1FKS Ukmerge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FKS Ukmerge 1484 · FM Klaipedos 1509

	FKS Ukmerge	Draw	FM Klaipedos
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	41%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FM Klaipedos: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FKS Ukmerge	FM Klaipedos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.9	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.80

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
08:09 +5’	2.20	3.80	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FKS Ukmerge 2–1–3 FM Klaipedos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Lithuania II Lyga	FM Klaipedos	3-0 HT 0-0	FKS Ukmerge
29/10/25 Lithuania II Lyga	FKS Ukmerge	4-2 HT 4-1	FM Klaipedos
11/06/25 Lithuania II Lyga	FM Klaipedos	1-4 HT 1-1	FKS Ukmerge
25/08/24 Lithuania II Lyga	FKS Ukmerge	2-2 HT 1-1	FM Klaipedos
15/05/24 Lithuania II Lyga	FM Klaipedos	4-1 HT 1-0	FKS Ukmerge
28/10/23 Lithuania II Lyga	FM Klaipedos	3-1	FKS Ukmerge

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	14	10	3	1	33	10	33
2	Vilnius Football Academy	14	9	3	2	47	17	30
3	Suduva Marijampole II	14	8	3	3	26	17	27
4	FM Klaipedos	14	8	2	4	24	16	26
5	FK Sveikata	14	7	3	4	28	19	24
6	FK Panevezys II	14	6	5	3	35	24	23
7	FK Sirvena	14	6	4	4	27	19	22
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	14	5	4	5	26	23	19
9	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	14	5	3	6	26	25	18
10	FKS Ukmerge	14	5	2	7	20	20	17
11	Banga Gargzdai II	14	4	3	7	19	20	15
12	FK Silute	14	3	4	7	18	28	13
13	Utenis Utena	14	3	3	8	15	33	12
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	14	2	2	10	18	54	8
15	DFK Dainava II	14	2	0	12	18	55	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FKS Ukmerge	FM Klaipedos
FK Silute	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	2-3 L	3-0 W
Banga Gargzdai II	1-0 W	1-2 L
FK Sveikata	1-2 L	2-1 W
FK Panevezys II	1-1 D	1-4 L
Nevezis	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FKS Ukmerge (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FKS Ukmerge

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
26/06	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	5	W
21/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
12/06	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
07/06	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	1-2	11	3	L
31/05	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
22/05	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
15/05	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
06/05	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
03/05	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	2-1	6	2	W

FM Klaipedos

LLWLLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/07	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
27/06	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
17/06	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
05/06	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
25/05	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
19/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-2	4	9	L
15/05	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
05/05	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-4	3	4	L
01/05	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FKS Ukmerge vs FM Klaipedos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FKS Ukmerge win (40%). Probabilities: FKS Ukmerge 40%, draw 25%, FM Klaipedos 35%.

How many goals are expected in FKS Ukmerge vs FM Klaipedos?

The model expects 3.08 goals (FKS Ukmerge 1.6 · FM Klaipedos 1.48), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FKS Ukmerge vs FM Klaipedos?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.