Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 02/08, 13:00

Prediction: FK Sveikata vs Utenis Utena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

FK Sveikata2.46

Utenis Utena1.27

1X2

63% 19% 18%

FK Sveikata Draw Utenis Utena

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Sveikata 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWWWD

Utenis Utena 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLLLD

Head-to-head

FK Sveikata 2–2–1 Utenis Utena (5 last)

Utenis Utena1-1FK Sveikata
FK Sveikata1-1Utenis Utena
Utenis Utena0-1FK Sveikata
Utenis Utena1-0FK Sveikata
Utenis Utena0-2FK Sveikata

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Sveikata 1546 · Utenis Utena 1437

	FK Sveikata	Draw	Utenis Utena
Our model	63%	20%	18%
Market	63%	19%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Sveikata (rating 1546 vs 1437).
H2H favours FK Sveikata: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Sveikata	Utenis Utena
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.1	1.2 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	1.3 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:55 +2’	1.42	4.75	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Sveikata 2–2–1 Utenis Utena

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Utenis Utena	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Sveikata
15/10/22 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Sveikata	1-1	Utenis Utena
14/05/22 Lithuania II Lyga	Utenis Utena	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Sveikata
12/05/21 Lithuania II Lyga	Utenis Utena	1-0	FK Sveikata
30/06/20 Lithuania Cup	Utenis Utena	0-2 HT 0-2	FK Sveikata

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	14	10	3	1	33	10	33
2	Vilnius Football Academy	15	10	3	2	51	18	33
3	Suduva Marijampole II	14	8	3	3	26	17	27
4	FM Klaipedos	14	8	2	4	24	16	26
5	FK Sveikata	14	7	3	4	28	19	24
6	FK Panevezys II	15	6	5	4	36	28	23
7	FK Sirvena	15	6	5	4	27	19	23
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	14	5	4	5	26	23	19
9	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	14	5	3	6	26	25	18
10	FKS Ukmerge	14	5	2	7	20	20	17
11	Banga Gargzdai II	15	4	4	7	19	20	16
12	FK Silute	14	3	4	7	18	28	13
13	Utenis Utena	14	3	3	8	15	33	12
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	14	2	2	10	18	54	8
15	DFK Dainava II	14	2	0	12	18	55	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Sveikata	Utenis Utena
FK Sirvena	1-1 D	0-3 L
FK Viltis Vilnius	4-0 W	4-2 W
Suduva Marijampole II	1-0 W	0-5 L
FKS Ukmerge	2-1 W	2-1 W
Sirijus Klaipeda	2-2 D	0-1 L
DFK Dainava II	7-0 W	2-4 L
FM Klaipedos	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Sveikata (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Sveikata

LWWLWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
14/06	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
07/06	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
29/05	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
23/05	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	7-0	7	1	W
15/05	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-0	12	0	W
03/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
28/04	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania Cup	0-2	0-3	2	1	L

Utenis Utena

LLLWLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	2-2	2	3	D
19/06	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
12/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-4	1-6	4	5	L
30/05	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-3	4	7	L
22/05	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	4-2	–	–	W
14/05	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-5	2	2	L
06/05	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
03/05	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
25/04	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	2-3	2-4	0	6	L
17/04	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Sveikata vs Utenis Utena?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Sveikata win (63%). Probabilities: FK Sveikata 63%, draw 19%, Utenis Utena 18%.

How many goals are expected in FK Sveikata vs Utenis Utena?

The model expects 3.73 goals (FK Sveikata 2.46 · Utenis Utena 1.27), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Sveikata vs Utenis Utena?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.