Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 14/08, 17:00

Prediction: Nevezis vs FK Sveikata

Team pages: Nevezis · FK Sveikata

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Nevezis2

FK Sveikata1.19

1X2

56% 22% 22%

Nevezis Draw FK Sveikata

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nevezis 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWLWWW

FK Sveikata 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWDDD

Head-to-head

Nevezis 2–0 FK Sveikata (2 last)

FK Sveikata0-2Nevezis
FK Sveikata0-1Nevezis

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nevezis 1591 · FK Sveikata 1532

	Nevezis	Draw	FK Sveikata
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	57%	21%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nevezis (rating 1591 vs 1532).
H2H favours Nevezis: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nevezis	FK Sveikata
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1	2.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.7	1.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.33

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:58 +6’	1.60	4.33	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nevezis 2–0–0 FK Sveikata

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Sveikata	0-2 HT 0-1	Nevezis
26/06/19 Lithuania Cup	FK Sveikata	0-1 HT 0-0	Nevezis

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	15	11	3	1	35	11	36
2	Vilnius Football Academy	16	10	4	2	53	20	34
3	Suduva Marijampole II	16	9	3	4	32	18	30
4	FM Klaipedos	16	9	2	5	26	18	29
5	FK Sveikata	16	7	5	4	32	23	26
6	FKS Ukmerge	16	7	2	7	24	22	23
7	FK Panevezys II	16	6	5	5	37	30	23
8	FK Sirvena	16	6	5	5	28	21	23
9	Sirijus Klaipeda	15	6	4	5	31	25	22
10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	17	6	3	8	31	32	21
11	Banga Gargzdai II	16	5	4	7	23	20	19
12	FK Silute	16	4	4	8	21	36	16
13	Utenis Utena	17	4	4	9	21	41	16
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	16	3	2	11	22	58	11
15	DFK Dainava II	16	2	0	14	21	62	6

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nevezis	FK Sveikata
Vilnius Football Academy	2-1 W	2-2 D
Utenis Utena	3-0 W	2-2 D
FK Sirvena	2-3 L	1-1 D
FK Viltis Vilnius	5-0 W	4-0 W
Suduva Marijampole II	1-1 D	1-0 W
FKS Ukmerge	2-1 W	2-1 W
Sirijus Klaipeda	1-1 D	2-2 D
DFK Dainava II	5-2 W	7-0 W
FM Klaipedos	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nevezis (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nevezis

WWDWDWLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
26/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	2	2	W
19/06	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	1	W
12/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	2-3	5	7	L
05/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	5-0	8	2	W
30/05	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-1	11	4	D
22/05	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
15/05	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/05	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	5-2	5	0	W
01/05	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	2-0	10	5	W

FK Sveikata

WLWDWWWDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	2-2	5	6	D
02/08	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
28/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
14/06	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
07/06	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
29/05	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
23/05	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	7-0	7	1	W
15/05	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-0	12	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nevezis vs FK Sveikata?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nevezis win (56%). Probabilities: Nevezis 56%, draw 22%, FK Sveikata 22%.

How many goals are expected in Nevezis vs FK Sveikata?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Nevezis 2 · FK Sveikata 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nevezis vs FK Sveikata?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.