Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 14/08, 18:00

Prediction: Vilnius Football Academy vs Banga Gargzdai II

Team pages: Vilnius Football Academy · Banga Gargzdai II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Vilnius Football Academy2.33

Banga Gargzdai II1.2

1X2

62% 20% 18%

Vilnius Football Academy Draw Banga Gargzdai II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vilnius Football Academy 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWLDWD

Banga Gargzdai II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWLDW

Head-to-head

Vilnius Football Academy 1–0 Banga Gargzdai II (1 last)

Banga Gargzdai II0-1Vilnius Football Academy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vilnius Football Academy 1552 · Banga Gargzdai II 1520

	Vilnius Football Academy	Draw	Banga Gargzdai II
Our model	62%	21%	18%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vilnius Football Academy	Banga Gargzdai II
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.6	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.6	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:46 +18’	1.44	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vilnius Football Academy 1–0–0 Banga Gargzdai II

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/03/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Banga Gargzdai II	0-1 HT 0-0	Vilnius Football Academy

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	15	11	3	1	35	11	36
2	Vilnius Football Academy	16	10	4	2	53	20	34
3	Suduva Marijampole II	16	9	3	4	32	18	30
4	FM Klaipedos	16	9	2	5	26	18	29
5	FK Sveikata	16	7	5	4	32	23	26
6	FKS Ukmerge	16	7	2	7	24	22	23
7	FK Panevezys II	16	6	5	5	37	30	23
8	FK Sirvena	16	6	5	5	28	21	23
9	Sirijus Klaipeda	15	6	4	5	31	25	22
10	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	17	6	3	8	31	32	21
11	Banga Gargzdai II	16	5	4	7	23	20	19
12	FK Silute	16	4	4	8	21	36	16
13	Utenis Utena	17	4	4	9	21	41	16
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	16	3	2	11	22	58	11
15	DFK Dainava II	16	2	0	14	21	62	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vilnius Football Academy	Banga Gargzdai II
Utenis Utena	6-1 W	4-0 W
FK Sirvena	1-1 D	0-0 D
FK Viltis Vilnius	9-0 W	4-0 W
Suduva Marijampole II	4-0 W	2-1 W
FKS Ukmerge	1-1 D	0-1 L
Sirijus Klaipeda	2-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vilnius Football Academy (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vilnius Football Academy

LDWWDWLDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
31/07	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	1	W
30/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	3-3	4	10	D
26/06	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-2	9	2	L
12/06	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	4-0	6-1	4	5	W
05/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-1	8	7	D
31/05	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	6-0	9-0	3	5	W
22/05	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	4-0	19	8	W
15/05	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-1	8	8	D
08/05	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-4	3	7	L

Banga Gargzdai II

WWLDLWWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	4-0	3	3	W
31/07	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
03/07	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	4-0	5	3	W
22/06	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
12/06	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
05/06	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
31/05	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-3	6	5	L
25/05	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
17/05	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vilnius Football Academy vs Banga Gargzdai II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vilnius Football Academy win (62%). Probabilities: Vilnius Football Academy 62%, draw 20%, Banga Gargzdai II 18%.

How many goals are expected in Vilnius Football Academy vs Banga Gargzdai II?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Vilnius Football Academy 2.33 · Banga Gargzdai II 1.2), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vilnius Football Academy vs Banga Gargzdai II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.