Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 23/10, 18:30

Prediction: Vilnius Football Academy vs Utenis Utena

Team pages: Vilnius Football Academy · Utenis Utena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.36Total

Vilnius Football Academy3.18

Utenis Utena1.18

1X2

79% 12% 8%

Vilnius Football Academy Draw Utenis Utena

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Vilnius Football Academy 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWDWD

Utenis Utena 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWDLW

Head-to-head

Vilnius Football Academy 1–0 Utenis Utena (1 last)

Utenis Utena1-6Vilnius Football Academy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vilnius Football Academy 1579 · Utenis Utena 1492

	Vilnius Football Academy	Draw	Utenis Utena
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	82%	11%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 4.36 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vilnius Football Academy (rating 1579 vs 1492).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vilnius Football Academy	Utenis Utena
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.9	1.6 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.13

X8.50

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.75)1.90

2 (+2.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.10 → 1.13▲	Bet365 1.13
X	9.00 → 8.50▼	Bet365 8.50
2	15.00 → 13.00▼	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:56 +8’	1.10	9.00	15.00
22:25 +5’	1.13▲	8.50▼	13.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vilnius Football Academy 1–0–0 Utenis Utena

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Utenis Utena	1-6 HT 0-4	Vilnius Football Academy

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	25	19	4	2	66	22	61
2	Vilnius Football Academy	26	16	7	3	79	27	55
3	Suduva Marijampole II	25	15	6	4	57	26	51
4	FK Sveikata	24	12	6	6	53	34	42
5	FK Sirvena	25	11	7	7	44	31	40
6	FM Klaipedos	26	12	3	11	36	37	39
7	FK Panevezys II	25	9	8	8	60	53	35
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	25	9	6	10	46	42	33
9	FKS Ukmerge	25	9	5	11	43	40	32
10	Banga Gargzdai II	25	9	5	11	46	32	32
11	Utenis Utena	25	8	5	12	32	53	29
12	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	25	7	3	15	43	63	24
13	FK Silute	25	6	4	15	33	70	22
14	DFK Dainava II	25	6	1	18	44	87	19
15	FK Viltis Vilnius	25	4	2	19	26	91	14

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vilnius Football Academy	Utenis Utena
FK Sirvena	0-0 D	2-1 W
FK Viltis Vilnius	8-0 W	0-1 L
Suduva Marijampole II	0-0 D	2-2 D
FKS Ukmerge	2-0 W	3-2 W
Sirijus Klaipeda	0-2 L	1-0 W
DFK Dainava II	2-2 D	2-4 L
FM Klaipedos	2-0 W	1-0 W
FK Silute	6-0 W	0-2 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	4-2 W	4-2 W
Banga Gargzdai II	2-1 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Vilnius Football Academy (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vilnius Football Academy

WWWWDLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
09/10	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	8-0	6	2	W
03/10	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
23/09	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
19/09	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
11/09	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	2-2	15	3	D
02/09	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
28/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	6-0	11	2	W
23/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	4-2	5	6	W
14/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	3	W

Utenis Utena

LWLWLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
24/09	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	2-2	2	3	D
19/09	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
10/09	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
05/09	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	2-4	2	4	L
26/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
21/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	4-2	3	7	W
05/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-4	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vilnius Football Academy vs Utenis Utena?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vilnius Football Academy win (79%). Probabilities: Vilnius Football Academy 79%, draw 12%, Utenis Utena 8%.

How many goals are expected in Vilnius Football Academy vs Utenis Utena?

The model expects 4.36 goals (Vilnius Football Academy 3.18 · Utenis Utena 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vilnius Football Academy vs Utenis Utena?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.