Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 13/11, 20:45

Prediction: Crusaders vs Carrick Rangers

Team pages: Crusaders · Carrick Rangers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Crusaders1.87

Carrick Rangers1.81

1X2

40% 23% 37%

Crusaders Draw Carrick Rangers

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Crusaders 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLLWL

Carrick Rangers 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWDDLD

Head-to-head

Crusaders 1–2–3 Carrick Rangers (6 last)

Carrick Rangers4-0Crusaders
Crusaders2-2Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers6-1Crusaders
Crusaders2-2Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers1-2Crusaders
Crusaders3-4Carrick Rangers

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carrick Rangers (rating 1444 vs 1490).
H2H favours Carrick Rangers: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crusaders	Carrick Rangers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	1 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.96

Under 3.251.83

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.63 → 1.63	Pinn 1.63
X	4.42 → 4.42	Pinn 4.42
2	4.39 → 4.39	Pinn 4.39

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:32 +50’	1.63	4.42	4.39

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Crusaders 1–2–3 Carrick Rangers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/10/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Carrick Rangers	4-0 HT 1-0	Crusaders
01/09/26 Northern Ireland County Antrim Shield	Crusaders	2-2 HT 1-0	Carrick Rangers
28/03/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Carrick Rangers	6-1 HT 2-1	Crusaders
30/12/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	2-2 HT 1-2	Carrick Rangers
08/11/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Carrick Rangers	1-2 HT 0-1	Crusaders
09/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Crusaders	3-4 HT 3-2	Carrick Rangers

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Linfield	15	11	3	1	24	11	36
2	Coleraine	15	11	2	2	32	16	35
3	Larne FC	13	8	2	3	24	14	26
4	Glentoran	14	6	4	4	17	11	22
5	Cliftonville	15	7	0	8	27	19	21
6	Carrick Rangers	15	5	4	6	23	27	19
7	Dungannon Swifts	14	5	3	6	16	20	18
8	Crusaders	15	6	0	9	20	30	18
9	Ballymena Utd	13	4	4	5	18	17	16
10	Limavady United	15	4	2	9	16	26	14
11	Bangor FC	15	3	3	9	13	26	12
12	Portadown	15	2	3	10	12	25	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crusaders	Carrick Rangers
Limavady United	4-1 W	1-1 D
Ballymena Utd	1-2 L	1-1 D
Larne FC	0-3 L	2-5 L
Linfield	0-1 L	2-2 D
Dungannon Swifts	3-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crusaders

LWLWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-1	11	7	L
31/10	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	4-1	6	6	W
24/10	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-3	0-5	1	4	L
17/10	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
03/10	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-4	8	3	L
26/09	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
19/09	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
15/09	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	3-0	7	6	W
12/09	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-2	4	3	L

Carrick Rangers

LDLLWWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
31/10	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	1-4	1-7	3	2	L
24/10	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
17/10	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	1-2	2-2	4	1	D
10/10	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	3-1	4-2	8	5	W
03/10	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
26/09	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
19/09	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	2-3	2-5	11	4	L
15/09	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
12/09	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	1-2	1-3	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crusaders vs Carrick Rangers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Crusaders win (40%). Probabilities: Crusaders 40%, draw 23%, Carrick Rangers 37%.

How many goals are expected in Crusaders vs Carrick Rangers?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Crusaders 1.87 · Carrick Rangers 1.81), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Crusaders vs Carrick Rangers?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.