Football · Northern Ireland Championship · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Institute vs Dundela

Team pages: Institute · Dundela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Institute2.18

Dundela1.19

1X2

59% 22% 19%

Institute Draw Dundela

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Institute 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWLWDW

Dundela 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDWLLL

Head-to-head

Institute 3–2–1 Dundela (6 last)

Dundela1-2Institute
Institute2-1Dundela
Institute1-1Dundela
Dundela2-2Institute
Dundela1-3Institute
Dundela4-3Institute

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Institute 1528 · Dundela 1428

	Institute	Draw	Dundela
Our model	59%	22%	19%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Institute (rating 1528 vs 1428).
H2H favours Institute: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Institute	Dundela
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	1.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:35 +48’	1.53	4.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Institute 3–2–1 Dundela

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	1-2	Institute
17/01/26 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	2-1 HT 0-0	Dundela
18/10/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Institute	1-1 HT 0-0	Dundela
13/09/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	2-2 HT 0-1	Institute
22/02/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	1-3	Institute
01/02/25 Northern Ireland Championship	Dundela	4-3	Institute

Standings · Northern Ireland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Annagh United	12	7	4	1	28	15	25
2	Glenavon	12	7	3	2	30	14	24
3	Newington FC	12	7	2	3	27	22	23
4	Queens University	12	6	2	4	21	9	20
5	Institute	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
6	Newry City	12	5	4	3	20	20	19
7	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21	17	18
8	Ballinamallard Utd	12	5	3	4	19	18	18
9	HW Welders	12	5	1	6	18	20	16
10	Ards FC	12	4	3	5	14	15	15
11	Loughgall	12	3	5	4	16	22	14
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	14	24	14
13	Rathfriland Rangers	12	4	0	8	12	23	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19	24	11
15	Strabane Athletic	12	2	4	6	11	21	10
16	Armagh City	12	0	5	7	10	21	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Institute	Dundela
HW Welders	0-0 D	0-2 L
Newington FC	7-0 W	5-5 D
Annagh United	0-5 L	2-2 D
Armagh City	5-3 W	2-0 W
Rathfriland Rangers	2-0 W	0-1 L
Newry City	1-3 L	1-3 L
Queens University	1-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Institute (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Institute

DLLWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Ards FC Northern Ireland Championship	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/10	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
03/10	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	7-0	–	–	W
26/09	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	0-3	0-5	8	7	L
19/09	Warrenpoint Town Northern Ireland Championship	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-3	–	–	W
05/09	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
29/08	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
22/08	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	1-1	1-4	3	4	L
15/08	Loughgall Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Dundela

DLLWDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Rathfriland Rangers Northern Ireland Championship	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
09/10	Newry City Northern Ireland Championship	1-3	1-3	5	3	L
03/10	Queens University Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
26/09	Armagh City Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
18/09	Strabane Athletic Northern Ireland Championship	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
12/09	Newington FC Northern Ireland Championship	–	5-5	–	–	D
05/09	Glenavon Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
28/08	HW Welders Northern Ireland Championship	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
22/08	Ballinamallard Utd Northern Ireland Championship	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Annagh United Northern Ireland Championship	2-1	2-2	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Institute vs Dundela?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Institute win (59%). Probabilities: Institute 59%, draw 22%, Dundela 19%.

How many goals are expected in Institute vs Dundela?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Institute 2.18 · Dundela 1.19), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Institute vs Dundela?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.