Football · Belgium First Division A · 22/11, 16:00
Prediction: KV Kortrijk vs Union Saint Gilloise
Team pages: KV Kortrijk · Union Saint Gilloise
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
KV Kortrijk0.85
Union Saint Gilloise2.07
1X2
KV Kortrijk
Draw
Union Saint Gilloise
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2 12%
Recent form · 10 last
KV Kortrijk
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Union Saint Gilloise
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
KV Kortrijk
0–6
Union Saint Gilloise
(6 last)
- KV Kortrijk1-2Union Saint Gilloise
- Union Saint Gilloise3-0KV Kortrijk
- KV Kortrijk1-3Union Saint Gilloise
- Union Saint Gilloise3-0KV Kortrijk
- KV Kortrijk2-4Union Saint Gilloise
- Union Saint Gilloise2-1KV Kortrijk
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KV Kortrijk 1414 · Union Saint Gilloise 1640
| KV Kortrijk | Draw | Union Saint Gilloise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 22% | 65% |
| Market | 15% | 19% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Saint Gilloise (rating 1414 vs 1640).
- H2H favours Union Saint Gilloise: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KV Kortrijk | Union Saint Gilloise | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 2 | 2.5 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.4 | 2.5 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.4 | 3.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KV Kortrijk 0–0–6 Union Saint Gilloise
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/25 Belgium First Division A | KV Kortrijk | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Union Saint Gilloise |
| 29/09/24 Belgium First Division A | Union Saint Gilloise | 3-0 HT 1-0 | KV Kortrijk |
| 18/02/24 Belgium First Division A | KV Kortrijk | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Union Saint Gilloise |
| 12/11/23 Belgium First Division A | Union Saint Gilloise | 3-0 HT 2-0 | KV Kortrijk |
| 23/04/23 Belgium First Division A | KV Kortrijk | 2-4 HT 2-1 | Union Saint Gilloise |
| 13/08/22 Belgium First Division A | Union Saint Gilloise | 2-1 HT 1-0 | KV Kortrijk |
Standings · Belgium First Division A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Saint Gilloise | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 7 | 29 |
| 2 | Club Brugge | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 9 | 28 |
| 3 | Gent | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 28 |
| 4 | Charleroi | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 13 | 27 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Lommel | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 16 |
| 7 | Genk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 15 |
| 8 | Standard Liege | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 15 |
| 9 | Westerlo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 30 | 14 |
| 10 | OH Leuven | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 12 |
| 11 | KV Mechelen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 12 |
| 12 | Sint-Truidense | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 11 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 11 |
| 14 | Zulte-Waregem | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 11 |
| 15 | SK Beveren | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cercle Brugge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 9 |
| 17 | RAAL La Louviere | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 7 |
| 18 | KV Kortrijk | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 23 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | KV Kortrijk | Union Saint Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| SK Beveren | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Zulte-Waregem | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Anderlecht | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Charleroi | 1-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Antwerp | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 5 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Union Saint Gilloise (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KV Kortrijk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Gent Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 04/11 | KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 31/10 | Standard Liege Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Genk Belgium First Division A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | SK Beveren Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/09 | Anderlecht Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Charleroi Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Antwerp Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
Union Saint Gilloise
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Genk Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 31/10 | SK Beveren Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 5-2 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | OH Leuven Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Antwerp Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Lommel Belgium First Division A |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Charleroi Belgium First Division A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | Anderlecht Belgium First Division A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in KV Kortrijk vs Union Saint Gilloise?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Saint Gilloise win (65%). Probabilities: KV Kortrijk 14%, draw 21%, Union Saint Gilloise 65%.
How many goals are expected in KV Kortrijk vs Union Saint Gilloise?
The model expects 2.92 goals (KV Kortrijk 0.85 · Union Saint Gilloise 2.07), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in KV Kortrijk vs Union Saint Gilloise?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.