Football · Belgium First Division A · 21/11, 18:15

Prediction: Genk vs RAAL La Louviere

Team pages: Genk · RAAL La Louviere

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

Genk2.51

RAAL La Louviere1.2

1X2

65% 20% 16%

Genk Draw RAAL La Louviere

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Genk 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLWWLL

RAAL La Louviere 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Genk 0–2–0 RAAL La Louviere (2 last)

RAAL La Louviere5-5Genk
Genk1-1RAAL La Louviere

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Genk 1515 · RAAL La Louviere 1451

	Genk	Draw	RAAL La Louviere
Our model	65%	19%	16%
Market	64%	20%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Genk (rating 1515 vs 1451).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Genk	RAAL La Louviere
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.50

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Pinn 1.44
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.88 ★
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +8’	1.42	4.50	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +6’	1.44	4.88	6.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Genk 0–2–0 RAAL La Louviere

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Belgium First Division A	RAAL La Louviere	5-5 HT 2-3	Genk
26/10/25 Belgium First Division A	Genk	1-1 HT 1-1	RAAL La Louviere

Standings · Belgium First Division A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Saint Gilloise	11	9	2	0	30	7	29
2	Club Brugge	11	9	1	1	27	9	28
3	Gent	11	9	1	1	20	6	28
4	Charleroi	11	9	0	2	26	13	27
5	Anderlecht	11	6	2	3	14	12	20
6	Lommel	11	4	4	3	15	13	16
7	Genk	11	4	3	4	18	15	15
8	Standard Liege	11	4	3	4	18	16	15
9	Westerlo	11	4	2	5	26	30	14
10	OH Leuven	11	3	3	5	12	17	12
11	KV Mechelen	11	3	3	5	13	20	12
12	Sint-Truidense	11	3	2	6	22	22	11
13	Antwerp	11	3	2	6	18	24	11
14	Zulte-Waregem	11	3	2	6	13	20	11
15	SK Beveren	11	3	1	7	13	23	10
16	Cercle Brugge	11	2	3	6	14	22	9
17	RAAL La Louviere	11	2	1	8	13	24	7
18	KV Kortrijk	11	1	1	9	4	23	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Genk	RAAL La Louviere
KV Mechelen	0-1 L	2-2 D
Standard Liege	2-1 W	0-2 L
KV Kortrijk	3-0 W	3-0 W
Club Brugge	0-3 L	1-4 L
Gent	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Genk (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Genk

WDWDDLWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
31/10	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-1	8	7	L
25/10	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-1	11	5	W
10/10	KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
20/09	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
13/09	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
06/09	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
28/08	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	3-0	4-0	3	1	W
22/08	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	1-1	4-4	4	2	D
15/08	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	2-2	3-2	8	6	W

RAAL La Louviere

LLDLWLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
01/11	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	0-2	2-5	5	5	L
24/10	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
10/10	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-2	1-4	7	5	L
19/09	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
13/09	KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-0	0	4	W
05/09	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
29/08	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	2-1	2-2	1	4	D
21/08	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
16/08	Gent Belgium First Division A	1-1	1-2	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Genk vs RAAL La Louviere?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Genk win (65%). Probabilities: Genk 65%, draw 20%, RAAL La Louviere 16%.

How many goals are expected in Genk vs RAAL La Louviere?

The model expects 3.71 goals (Genk 2.51 · RAAL La Louviere 1.2), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Genk vs RAAL La Louviere?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.