Football · Belgium First Division A · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Charleroi vs Sint-Truidense

Team pages: Charleroi · Sint-Truidense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Charleroi1.93

Sint-Truidense1.44

1X2

48% 25% 28%

Charleroi Draw Sint-Truidense

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Charleroi 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWLWW

Sint-Truidense 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Charleroi 3–2–1 Sint-Truidense (6 last)

Sint-Truidense0-2Charleroi
Charleroi1-1Sint-Truidense
Charleroi2-1Sint-Truidense
Sint-Truidense1-4Charleroi
Sint-Truidense1-0Charleroi
Charleroi1-1Sint-Truidense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charleroi 1587 · Sint-Truidense 1493

	Charleroi	Draw	Sint-Truidense
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	47%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charleroi (rating 1587 vs 1493).
H2H favours Charleroi: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charleroi	Sint-Truidense
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.2	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.3	3.8 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.03
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.86 ★
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:51 +96’	1.91	3.60	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	2.03	3.86	3.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Charleroi 3–2–1 Sint-Truidense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Belgium First Division A	Sint-Truidense	0-2 HT 0-0	Charleroi
03/08/25 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	1-1 HT 1-1	Sint-Truidense
21/12/24 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	2-1 HT 1-0	Sint-Truidense
03/08/24 Belgium First Division A	Sint-Truidense	1-4 HT 0-4	Charleroi
23/12/23 Belgium First Division A	Sint-Truidense	1-0 HT 0-0	Charleroi
03/09/23 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	1-1 HT 0-0	Sint-Truidense

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Saint Gilloise	11	9	2	0	30	7	29
2	Club Brugge	11	9	1	1	27	9	28
3	Gent	11	9	1	1	20	6	28
4	Charleroi	11	9	0	2	26	13	27
5	Anderlecht	11	6	2	3	14	12	20
6	Lommel	11	4	4	3	15	13	16
7	Genk	11	4	3	4	18	15	15
8	Standard Liege	11	4	3	4	18	16	15
9	Westerlo	11	4	2	5	26	30	14
10	OH Leuven	11	3	3	5	12	17	12
11	KV Mechelen	11	3	3	5	13	20	12
12	Sint-Truidense	11	3	2	6	22	22	11
13	Antwerp	11	3	2	6	18	24	11
14	Zulte-Waregem	11	3	2	6	13	20	11
15	SK Beveren	11	3	1	7	13	23	10
16	Cercle Brugge	11	2	3	6	14	22	9
17	RAAL La Louviere	11	2	1	8	13	24	7
18	KV Kortrijk	11	1	1	9	4	23	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charleroi	Sint-Truidense
Westerlo	5-1 W	0-2 L
RAAL La Louviere	5-2 W	4-0 W
Antwerp	0-3 L	4-1 W
Cercle Brugge	3-2 W	3-3 D
Zulte-Waregem	1-0 W	4-1 W
Union Saint Gilloise	2-3 L	0-3 L
KV Mechelen	2-0 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Charleroi (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charleroi

WWWLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	0-0	5-1	5	5	W
01/11	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	2-0	5-2	4	5	W
24/10	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
11/10	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
19/09	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	2-1	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
05/09	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	2-2	2-3	5	3	L
29/08	KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
22/08	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
16/08	Lommel Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-0	12	1	W

Sint-Truidense

DWLWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	2-1	4-1	5	4	W
01/11	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-2	15	4	L
25/10	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-2	2-3	4	2	L
11/10	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-3	3-4	8	6	L
20/09	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
05/09	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	1-0	4-0	12	3	W
02/09	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
30/08	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	1-0	4-1	1	4	W
14/08	Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A	2-1	3-3	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charleroi vs Sint-Truidense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charleroi win (48%). Probabilities: Charleroi 48%, draw 25%, Sint-Truidense 28%.

How many goals are expected in Charleroi vs Sint-Truidense?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Charleroi 1.93 · Sint-Truidense 1.44), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Sint-Truidense?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.