Football · Belgium First Division A · 21/11, 20:45
Prediction: KV Mechelen vs Club Brugge
Team pages: KV Mechelen · Club Brugge
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.74Total
KV Mechelen1.18
Club Brugge2.56
1X2
KV Mechelen
Draw
Club Brugge
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
KV Mechelen
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Club Brugge
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
KV Mechelen
1–2–3
Club Brugge
(6 last)
- KV Mechelen2-2Club Brugge
- Club Brugge6-1KV Mechelen
- Club Brugge4-1KV Mechelen
- KV Mechelen2-1Club Brugge
- KV Mechelen1-2Club Brugge
- Club Brugge1-1KV Mechelen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KV Mechelen 1474 · Club Brugge 1649
| KV Mechelen | Draw | Club Brugge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 19% | 66% |
| Market | 15% | 19% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Brugge (rating 1474 vs 1649).
- H2H favours Club Brugge: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KV Mechelen | Club Brugge | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5.9 | 4.9 / 8.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KV Mechelen 1–2–3 Club Brugge
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 Belgium First Division A | KV Mechelen | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Club Brugge |
| 22/04/26 Belgium First Division A | Club Brugge | 6-1 HT 1-1 | KV Mechelen |
| 22/03/26 Belgium First Division A | Club Brugge | 4-1 HT 3-0 | KV Mechelen |
| 01/08/25 Belgium First Division A | KV Mechelen | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Club Brugge |
| 07/12/24 Belgium First Division A | KV Mechelen | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Club Brugge |
| 26/07/24 Belgium First Division A | Club Brugge | 1-1 HT 0-0 | KV Mechelen |
Standings · Belgium First Division A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Saint Gilloise | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 7 | 29 |
| 2 | Club Brugge | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 9 | 28 |
| 3 | Gent | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 28 |
| 4 | Charleroi | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 13 | 27 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Lommel | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 16 |
| 7 | Genk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 15 |
| 8 | Standard Liege | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 15 |
| 9 | Westerlo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 30 | 14 |
| 10 | OH Leuven | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 12 |
| 11 | KV Mechelen | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 12 |
| 12 | Sint-Truidense | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 11 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 11 |
| 14 | Zulte-Waregem | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 11 |
| 15 | SK Beveren | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cercle Brugge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 9 |
| 17 | RAAL La Louviere | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 7 |
| 18 | KV Kortrijk | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 23 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Genk | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Sint-Truidense | 4-3 W | 3-2 W |
| Lommel | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Anderlecht | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| RAAL La Louviere | 2-2 D | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 5 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Club Brugge (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KV Mechelen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | OH Leuven Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 16 | 5 | L |
| 04/11 | KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 31/10 | Genk Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A |
3-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Lommel Belgium First Division A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 11/09 | Anderlecht Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Westerlo Belgium First Division A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Charleroi Belgium First Division A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Standard Liege Belgium First Division A |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | D |
Club Brugge
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Anderlecht Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 30/10 | Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A |
4-1 | 4-2 | 14 | 5 | W |
| 25/10 | Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Genk Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Antwerp Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 04/09 | Lommel Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Gent Belgium First Division A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 23/08 | Cercle Brugge Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | OH Leuven Belgium First Division A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 16 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in KV Mechelen vs Club Brugge?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Club Brugge win (66%). Probabilities: KV Mechelen 15%, draw 19%, Club Brugge 66%.
How many goals are expected in KV Mechelen vs Club Brugge?
The model expects 3.74 goals (KV Mechelen 1.18 · Club Brugge 2.56), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in KV Mechelen vs Club Brugge?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.