Football · Austria Bundesliga · 21/11, 19:30

Prediction: Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna

Team pages: Grazer AK · Rapid Vienna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Grazer AK1.16

Rapid Vienna2.36

1X2

16% 21% 63%

Grazer AK Draw Rapid Vienna

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Grazer AK 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWDDLDLL

Rapid Vienna 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Grazer AK 1–2–2 Rapid Vienna (5 last)

Rapid Vienna8-0Grazer AK
Rapid Vienna1-2Grazer AK
Grazer AK1-1Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna3-0Grazer AK
Grazer AK1-1Rapid Vienna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grazer AK 1462 · Rapid Vienna 1621

	Grazer AK	Draw	Rapid Vienna
Our model	17%	20%	63%
Market	16%	22%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rapid Vienna (rating 1462 vs 1621).
H2H favours Rapid Vienna: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grazer AK	Rapid Vienna
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.5	3.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.20

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.42
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.69 ★
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +13’	6.00	4.20	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +7’	6.42	4.69	1.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grazer AK 1–2–2 Rapid Vienna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Austria Bundesliga	Rapid Vienna	8-0 HT 5-0	Grazer AK
23/11/25 Austria Bundesliga	Rapid Vienna	1-2 HT 0-0	Grazer AK
21/09/25 Austria Bundesliga	Grazer AK	1-1 HT 0-1	Rapid Vienna
16/03/25 Austria Bundesliga	Rapid Vienna	3-0 HT 3-0	Grazer AK
27/10/24 Austria Bundesliga	Grazer AK	1-1 HT 0-0	Rapid Vienna

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	12	11	0	1	39	9	33
2	FC Salzburg	12	9	3	0	33	9	30
3	LASK Linz	12	8	1	3	30	15	25
4	Hartberg	12	6	2	4	23	19	20
5	SK Sturm Graz	12	5	4	3	22	17	19
6	SV Ried	12	4	4	4	21	22	16
7	WSG Swarovski Tirol	12	3	4	5	15	18	13
8	Austria Lustenau	12	3	2	7	15	30	11
9	Grazer AK	12	2	4	6	9	29	10
10	SCR Altach	12	3	1	8	11	20	10
11	FK Austria Vienna	12	2	2	8	11	23	8
12	Wolfsberger AC	12	1	3	8	8	26	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grazer AK	Rapid Vienna
Austria Lustenau	1-2 L	5-1 W
Hartberg	0-4 L	3-1 W
WSG Swarovski Tirol	1-1 D	3-0 W
SK Sturm Graz	1-6 L	3-1 W
FC Salzburg	0-0 D	1-5 L
FK Austria Vienna	2-2 D	2-0 W
Wolfsberger AC	0-0 D	6-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Rapid Vienna (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grazer AK

LLDWDDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
30/10	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
24/10	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	1-0	1-1	9	2	D
18/10	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	1-3	1-6	2	3	L
10/10	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
19/09	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-2	2	8	D
12/09	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
29/08	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-0	11	7	D
21/08	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-5	0-8	1	4	L

Rapid Vienna

WWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	2-0	6-0	5	3	W
01/11	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
24/10	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	3-0	5-1	10	3	W
16/10	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
11/10	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
18/09	WSG Swarovski Tirol Austria Bundesliga	1-0	3-0	6	6	W
12/09	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-0	6	6	W
02/09	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-3	1-5	6	1	L
30/08	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	2-1	3-1	6	6	W
16/08	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	5-0	8-0	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rapid Vienna win (63%). Probabilities: Grazer AK 16%, draw 21%, Rapid Vienna 63%.

How many goals are expected in Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Grazer AK 1.16 · Rapid Vienna 2.36), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.