Football · Austria Bundesliga · 22/11, 14:30

Prediction: SCR Altach vs SK Sturm Graz

Team pages: SCR Altach · SK Sturm Graz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

SCR Altach1.34

SK Sturm Graz1.76

1X2

28% 26% 46%

SCR Altach Draw SK Sturm Graz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SCR Altach 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLWDL

SK Sturm Graz 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWWDDL

Head-to-head

SCR Altach 0–2–4 SK Sturm Graz (6 last)

SK Sturm Graz1-0SCR Altach
SK Sturm Graz2-0SCR Altach
SCR Altach1-1SK Sturm Graz
SCR Altach0-2SK Sturm Graz
SCR Altach1-1SK Sturm Graz
SK Sturm Graz2-1SCR Altach

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SCR Altach 1497 · SK Sturm Graz 1512

	SCR Altach	Draw	SK Sturm Graz
Our model	28%	25%	46%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SK Sturm Graz: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SCR Altach	SK Sturm Graz
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	3.2 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.50

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.88 ★
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.07

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +1’	3.20	3.50	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +9’	3.25	3.88	2.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SCR Altach 0–2–4 SK Sturm Graz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	1-0 HT 0-0	SCR Altach
08/03/26 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	2-0 HT 0-0	SCR Altach
01/02/26 Austria Cup	SCR Altach	1-1 HT 0-0	SK Sturm Graz
05/10/25 Austria Bundesliga	SCR Altach	0-2 HT 0-0	SK Sturm Graz
30/11/24 Austria Bundesliga	SCR Altach	1-1 HT 0-1	SK Sturm Graz
24/08/24 Austria Bundesliga	SK Sturm Graz	2-1 HT 0-0	SCR Altach

Standings · Austria Bundesliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	12	11	0	1	39	9	33
2	FC Salzburg	12	9	3	0	33	9	30
3	LASK Linz	12	8	1	3	30	15	25
4	Hartberg	12	6	2	4	23	19	20
5	SK Sturm Graz	12	5	4	3	22	17	19
6	SV Ried	12	4	4	4	21	22	16
7	WSG Swarovski Tirol	12	3	4	5	15	18	13
8	Austria Lustenau	12	3	2	7	15	30	11
9	Grazer AK	12	2	4	6	9	29	10
10	SCR Altach	12	3	1	8	11	20	10
11	FK Austria Vienna	12	2	2	8	11	23	8
12	Wolfsberger AC	12	1	3	8	8	26	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SCR Altach	SK Sturm Graz
SV Ried	1-1 D	2-2 D
FK Austria Vienna	2-1 W	2-0 W
FC Salzburg	0-3 L	3-4 L
Wolfsberger AC	3-0 W	1-1 D
Austria Lustenau	0-2 L	1-1 D
Grazer AK	1-2 L	6-1 W
LASK Linz	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SK Sturm Graz (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SCR Altach

LLLLLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
31/10	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
23/10	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
18/10	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
11/10	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
19/09	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
12/09	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
29/08	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	0-2	0-3	0	6	L
22/08	Hartberg Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-2	11	2	L
15/08	SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-1	7	2	L

SK Sturm Graz

WDLWLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	2-2	3-4	1	4	L
01/11	Wolfsberger AC Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
25/10	SV Ried Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
18/10	Grazer AK Austria Bundesliga	3-1	6-1	7	3	W
10/10	FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
20/09	FC Salzburg Austria Bundesliga	0-0	0-3	8	3	L
13/09	LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
22/08	Austria Lustenau Austria Bundesliga	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
15/08	SCR Altach Austria Bundesliga	0-0	1-0	12	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SCR Altach vs SK Sturm Graz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SK Sturm Graz win (46%). Probabilities: SCR Altach 28%, draw 26%, SK Sturm Graz 46%.

How many goals are expected in SCR Altach vs SK Sturm Graz?

The model expects 3.11 goals (SCR Altach 1.34 · SK Sturm Graz 1.76), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs SK Sturm Graz?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.