Football · England Championship · 21/11, 16:00

Prediction: Bolton vs Portsmouth

Team pages: Bolton · Portsmouth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Bolton1.34

Portsmouth1.47

1X2

33% 27% 39%

Bolton Draw Portsmouth

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bolton 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDLLWL

Portsmouth 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDWDWL

Head-to-head

Bolton 2–2–2 Portsmouth (6 last)

Bolton1-1Portsmouth
Portsmouth2-0Bolton
Portsmouth3-1Bolton
Bolton3-0Portsmouth
Bolton1-0Portsmouth
Bolton1-1Portsmouth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bolton 1477 · Portsmouth 1524

	Bolton	Draw	Portsmouth
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	34%	27%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portsmouth (rating 1477 vs 1524).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bolton	Portsmouth
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.77
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.58 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:49 +38’	2.75	3.40	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +2’	2.77	3.37	2.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bolton 2–2–2 Portsmouth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/24 England League 1	Bolton	1-1 HT 1-1	Portsmouth
11/12/23 England League 1	Portsmouth	2-0 HT 1-0	Bolton
28/02/23 England League 1	Portsmouth	3-1 HT 0-0	Bolton
14/01/23 England League 1	Bolton	3-0 HT 1-0	Portsmouth
10/01/23 England EFL Trophy	Bolton	1-0 HT 1-0	Portsmouth
05/04/22 England League 1	Bolton	1-1 HT 0-0	Portsmouth

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	28	14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	30	19	29
3	Stoke	15	9	2	4	24	18	29
4	Wolverhampton	15	8	4	3	26	18	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	23	15	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	29	15	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	24	18	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	37	23	23
10	Sheff Utd	15	6	4	5	21	19	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	20	18	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	32	24	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	22	23	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	27	27	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	18	20	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	23	27	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	16	24	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	20	29	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	13	23	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	13	23	15
21	Lincoln City	15	4	3	8	15	26	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	22	31	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	14	30	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	13	30	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bolton	Portsmouth
Charlton	1-0 W	0-0 D
Southampton	0-0 D	0-1 L
Wolverhampton	3-1 W	1-1 D
Stoke	1-2 L	1-2 L
Norwich	4-3 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bolton (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bolton

LWWLWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Derby England Championship	1-0	1-3	6	3	L
03/11	Charlton England Championship	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
31/10	Bristol City England Championship	1-1	2-3	11	2	L
23/10	Middlesbrough England Championship	1-3	1-5	2	1	L
17/10	Southampton England Championship	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
13/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
10/10	Stoke England Championship	0-1	1-2	10	3	L
20/09	Norwich England Championship	2-2	4-3	2	0	W
12/09	Cardiff England Championship	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
08/09	West Ham England Championship	2-2	2-3	4	2	L

Portsmouth

DDLWWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Stoke England Championship	1-0	1-2	7	6	L
03/11	Swansea England Championship	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
31/10	Burnley England Championship	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
24/10	Millwall England Championship	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
17/10	Norwich England Championship	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
14/10	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-0	3-2	10	6	W
11/10	Southampton England Championship	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
19/09	Blackburn England Championship	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
12/09	Charlton England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bolton vs Portsmouth?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Portsmouth win (39%). Probabilities: Bolton 33%, draw 27%, Portsmouth 39%.

How many goals are expected in Bolton vs Portsmouth?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Bolton 1.34 · Portsmouth 1.47), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bolton vs Portsmouth?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.