Football · England Championship · 22/11, 13:00

Prediction: Burnley vs Blackburn

Team pages: Burnley · Blackburn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Burnley1.96

Blackburn1.31

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Burnley Draw Blackburn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Burnley 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWDLLDDL

Blackburn 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Burnley 5–1–0 Blackburn (6 last)

Blackburn0-1Burnley
Burnley1-1Blackburn
Blackburn0-1Burnley
Burnley3-0Blackburn
Blackburn0-2Burnley
Burnley1-0Blackburn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Burnley 1464 · Blackburn 1508

	Burnley	Draw	Blackburn
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blackburn (rating 1464 vs 1508).
H2H favours Burnley: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Burnley	Blackburn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.86
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.79 ★
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.03

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +7’	1.80	3.50	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +6’	1.86	3.79	4.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Burnley 5–1–0 Blackburn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/25 England Championship	Blackburn	0-1 HT 0-0	Burnley
31/08/24 England Championship	Burnley	1-1 HT 1-1	Blackburn
25/04/23 England Championship	Blackburn	0-1 HT 0-0	Burnley
13/11/22 England Championship	Burnley	3-0 HT 0-0	Blackburn
23/08/17 England EFL Cup	Blackburn	0-2 HT 0-2	Burnley
05/03/16 England Championship	Burnley	1-0 HT 1-0	Blackburn

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	28	14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	30	19	29
3	Stoke	15	9	2	4	24	18	29
4	Wolverhampton	15	8	4	3	26	18	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	23	15	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	29	15	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	24	18	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	37	23	23
10	Sheff Utd	15	6	4	5	21	19	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	20	18	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	32	24	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	22	23	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	27	27	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	18	20	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	23	27	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	16	24	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	20	29	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	13	23	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	13	23	15
21	Lincoln City	15	4	3	8	15	26	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	22	31	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	14	30	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	13	30	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Burnley	Blackburn
Cardiff	4-5 L	2-1 W
Portsmouth	0-0 D	2-2 D
Swansea	1-3 L	0-4 L
Wrexham	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Blackburn (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Burnley

DLDWDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Cardiff England Championship	2-1	4-5	6	7	L
03/11	QPR England Championship	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
31/10	Portsmouth England Championship	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
24/10	Lincoln City England Championship	1-1	1-4	5	2	L
16/10	Wolverhampton England Championship	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
13/10	Charlton England Championship	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
10/10	Watford England Championship	3-0	4-0	2	0	W
19/09	Derby England Championship	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Swansea England Championship	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
08/09	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	1-1	4	5	D

Blackburn

LWDWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	West Ham England Championship	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
03/11	Stoke England Championship	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
31/10	Swansea England Championship	0-3	0-4	2	1	L
24/10	Wrexham England Championship	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
17/10	West Brom England Championship	2-1	2-3	4	5	L
13/10	Bristol City England Championship	1-0	1-0	5	0	W
10/10	Cardiff England Championship	2-0	2-1	11	1	W
19/09	Portsmouth England Championship	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Millwall England Championship	1-0	3-1	6	8	W
08/09	Sheff Utd England Championship	1-2	1-2	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Burnley vs Blackburn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Burnley win (51%). Probabilities: Burnley 51%, draw 25%, Blackburn 24%.

How many goals are expected in Burnley vs Blackburn?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Burnley 1.96 · Blackburn 1.31), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Burnley vs Blackburn?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.